National Bureau Of Economic Research Inc

ECONOMICS OF AGING

EARLY INDICATORS OF LATER WORK LEVELS, DISEASE AND DEATH

MEASURING THE CLINICAL AND ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ASSOCIATED WITH DELIVERY SYSTEMS

NBER CENTER FOR AGING AND HEALTH RESEARCH

THE EFFECT OF HEALTH INSURANCE ON UTILIZATION AND OUTCOMES: THE OREGON LOTTERY

NBER DISABILITY RESEARCH CENTER BUILDING A RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR IMPROVING DISABILITY POLICY

SSA RETIREMENT RESEARCH CONSORTIUM

NBER RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY RESEARCH CENTER

EXPANDING THE NATIONAL HEALTH ACCOUNTS

WHAT DOES HEALTH INSURANCE DO? EVIDENCE FROM THE OREGON HEALTH INSURANCE LOTTERY

BEHAVIOR CHANGE IN HEALTH AND SAVING

ECONOMICS OF AGING TRAINING PROGRAM-EXTENSION 3

INTEGRATED LIFECYCLE APPROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEALTH & OTHER CAPABILITIES

THE DESIGN OF SOCIAL INSURANCE FOR THE ELDERLY: PUBLIC PENSIONS & HEALTH INSURANC

NBER COORDINATING CENTER ON THE ECONOMICS OF AD/ADRD PREVENTION, TREATMENT, AND CARE. - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT NBER COORDINATING CENTER ON THE ECONOMICS OF AD/ADRD PREVENTION, TREATMENT, AND CARE THIS APPLICATION PROPOSES TO ESTABLISH A COORDINATING CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH ON ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE (AD) AND AD-RELATED DEMENTIA (ADRD) AT THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NBER). THE CONSORTIUM WILL ENCOMPASS THE 4-5 RESEARCH PROJECT (R01) GRANTS THAT ARE AWARDED UNDER THE NIA'S COMPANION PROGRAM ANNOUNCEMENT ON “CONSORTIUM FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH ON AD/ADRD PREVENTION, TREATMENT, AND CARE;” NEWLY FUNDED CENTER STUDIES SELECTED ANNUALLY FROM A NATIONAL COMPETITION AND SUPPORTED UNDER THE CENTER'S RESEARCH PROJECT CORE; THE WORK OF EARLY CAREER SCHOLARS SELECTED FOR THE CENTER'S MENTORED SCHOLARS PROGRAM; THE NBER'S ONGOING AND SEPARATELY-FUNDED PROJECTS ON THE ECONOMICS OF ADRD; AND SELECTED OTHER RESEARCH ON ADRD THAT MAY BE DEVELOPED IN THE FUTURE. THE UNDERLYING RESEARCH PROJECTS THAT WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH THE NBER CENTER WILL BE ORGANIZED, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AROUND FOUR OVERARCHING THEMES: (1) EMERGING CHALLENGES IN CAREGIVING FOR PEOPLE WITH ADRD, (2) UNDERSTANDING ADRD DIAGNOSIS AND PROGRESSION, (3) PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF ADRD, AND (4) DISPARITIES IN HEALTHCARE FOR PATIENTS WITH ADRD. IN COOPERATION WITH NIA, WE WILL FOSTER COLLABORATION AND SYNERGIES ACROSS CONSORTIUM MEMBER RESEARCH PROJECTS, INITIATE NEW HIGH-IMPACT RESEARCH PROJECTS THAT APPLY ECONOMIC METHODS TO UNDERSTANDING AND IMPROVING THE TREATMENT AND CARE FOR PEOPLE WITH ADRD; EXPAND THE NETWORK OF RESEARCHERS STUDYING THE ECONOMICS OF ADRD; AND DISSEMINATE FINDINGS TO KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO SUPPORT POLICYMAKING. AN ADMINISTRATIVE CORE WILL PROVIDE INTELLECTUAL LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE; CENTRALIZED ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMUNICATIONS, AND RESEARCH SUPPORT; SUPPORT OF EARLY CAREER INVESTIGATORS; AND ONGOING MONITORING OF PERFORMANCE METRICS THOUGH A PROGRAM TRACKING PLAN. A RESEARCH PROJECTS CORE WILL SUPPORT CUTTING EDGE RESEARCH PROJECTS ON THE ECONOMICS OF ADRD PREVENTION, TREATMENT, AND CARE. A STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT CORE WILL ASSURE THAT THE RESEARCH PROJECTS ARE INFORMED BY THE ON THE GROUND EXPERIENCE OF THOSE WORKING TO PREVENT, TREAT AND CARE FOR PEOPLE LIVING WITH ADRD AND THEIR FAMILIES AND CAREGIVERS. A CLOSELY RELATED TRANSLATION CORE WILL ENCOURAGE THE APPLICATION OF FINDINGS FROM CONSORTIUM RESEARCH IN PRACTICAL USES THAT IMPROVE THE HEALTH AND WELLBEING OF PEOPLE LIVING WITH AD/ADRD AND THEIR FAMILIES; DISSEMINATING FINDINGS AND RESEARCH RESOURCES, AND CONVENING AN ANNUAL CONFERENCE IN WASHINGTON, DC.

INNOVATION IN AN AGING SOCIETY

NBER RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY RESEARCH CENTER

CONTINUATION OF RISK, INSURANCE, AND THE FAMILY

USING SATELLITE NATIONAL HEALTH ACCOUNTS TO UNDERSTAND HEALTH AND COST CHANGES

NBER SUMMER INSTITUTE, 2016-2018

NBER RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY RESEARCH CENTER

A NEW DATABASE TO MEASURE THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INCOME, RACE, AND MORTALITY: INEQUALITY IN LONGEVITY DURING AND BEYOND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT A NEW DATABASE TO MEASURE THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INCOME, RACE, AND MORTALITY: INEQUALITY IN LONGEVITY DURING AND BEYOND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC DISPARITIES IN HEALTH AND LIFE EXPECTANCY BY INCOME ARE A CENTRAL CHALLENGE FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE HIGHEST- INCOME AMERICAN MEN LIVE NEARLY 15 YEARS LONGER ON AVERAGE THAN THE LOWEST-INCOME AMERICAN MEN; THE CORRESPONDING GAP FOR WOMEN IS 10 YEARS. THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC HAS AMPLIFIED THESE DISPARITIES BY INCOME, RACE, AND OTHER DIMENSIONS. UNFORTUNATELY, WE CURRENTLY LACK INFORMATION ON HOW MORTALITY RATES DUE TO COVID- 19 VARY WITH INDIVIDUAL INCOME, BECAUSE AVAILABLE U.S. POPULATION MORTALITY DATA LACKS INFORMATION ON INCOME. THE ABSENCE OF THIS INFORMATION HAS HINDERED OUR ABILITY TO MONITOR THE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 AND DEVELOP POLICIES TO MITIGATE ITS IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY ON DISADVANTAGED AND UNDERSERVED POPULATIONS, GOING FORWARD. THIS PROJECT WILL RESOLVE THESE CHALLENGES BY CONSTRUCTING A NEW PUBLIC DATABASE OF MORTALITY RATES INCORPORATING SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES AND COVERING THE ENTIRE U.S. POPULATION. USING THESE DATA, RESEARCHERS WILL BE ABLE TO ANALYZE THE SOURCES OF DISPARATE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON MORTALITY ACROSS SUBGROUPS, WITH THE AIM OF UNDERSTANDING HOW TO REDUCE HEALTH INEQUALITY IN THE PANDEMIC AND BEYOND. THE PROJECT HAS THREE SPECIFIC AIMS. AIM 1 OF THIS PROJECT IS TO RELEASE A NEW PUBLIC DATABASE OF MORTALITY RATES BY AGE, INCOME, RACE/ETHNICITY, GENDER AND COUNTY, AND PROVIDE RECURRING ANNUAL UPDATES TO THIS DATABASE. THIS DATABASE WILL BE CONSTRUCTED BY LINKING FROM TAX RETURNS, THE DECENNIAL CENSUS, AND SOCIAL SECURITY DEATH RECORDS. AIM 2 WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MORTALITY RATES BY RACE AND INCOME IN 2020- 21. THIS ANALYSIS WILL MEASURE THE QUANTITY OF EXCESS DEATHS AND DISPARITIES IN THEIR DISTRIBUTION CAUSED BY THE PANDEMIC, AND IDENTIFY ECONOMIC AND HEALTH MECHANISMS GENERATING THOSE DISPARITIES. AIM 3 WILL MEASURE THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF POST-PANDEMIC CHANGES IN HEALTH, HEALTH BEHAVIORS, LABOR INCOME, TAX AND TRANSFER POLICIES, AND BEHAVIORS ON RACIAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC INEQUALITY IN MORTALITY. THIS BROADER SET OF ANALYSES WILL USE THE SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS GENERATED BY THE PANDEMIC TO EXAMINE HOW AND WHY DISPARITIES ARE GROWING OR SHRINKING OVER TIME. TAKEN TOGETHER, THIS PROJECT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RESEARCH AND POLICY WORK BY PROVIDING CRITICAL NEW DATA ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AND HEALTH, THEREBY PROVIDING A TOOL TO MONITOR PROGRESS IN MITIGATING THE IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN UNDERSERVED COMMUNITIES.

DRINKING WATER QUALITY, THE HEALTH OF OLDER AMERICANS, AND INEQUALITY - PROJECT SUMMARY CLEAN DRINKING WATER IS CRUCIAL TO HUMAN HEALTH AND LONGEVITY. DESPITE ENORMOUS IMPROVEMENTS IN WATER TREATMENT OVER THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY, DRINKING WATER POLLUTION REMAINS A CRITICAL THREAT TO US PUBLIC HEALTH, PARTICULARLY FOR OLDER PEOPLE AND INDIVIDUALS WITH CHRONIC CONDITIONS. IN AN EFFORT TO PROTECT PUBLIC HEALTH, FEDERAL REGULATIONS SET DRINKING WATER QUALITY STANDARDS AND REGULATE THE PUBLIC WATER PURIFICATION SYSTEMS AND PIPES THAT CARRY TREATED WATER TO HOUSEHOLDS FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION. AN ESTIMATED $473 BILLION IN CURRENT NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION FUNDING IS NEEDED TO ACHIEVE COMPLIANCE WITH DRINKING WATER STANDARDS, EVEN AS MUCH REMAINS UNKNOWN ABOUT HOW POLLUTED DRINKING WATER AFFECTS HEALTH, ESPECIALLY AMONG OLDER AMERICANS. POLICY DEBATES ABOUT DRINKING WATER REGULATIONS HIGHLIGHT THE NEED FOR AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF THE BENEFITS AND COSTS OF DRINKING WATER REGULATIONS, INCLUDING DETERMINING WHETHER DRINKING WATER INVESTMENTS SHOULD BE INCREASED AND ENSURING THAT SAFE DRINKING WATER REMAINS ACCESSIBLE AND AFFORDABLE TO VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES. THIS PROJECT SEEKS TO ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE EXISTING STOCK OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF DRINKING WATER POLLUTION BY STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF LARGE FEDERAL LOANS INTENDED TO UPGRADE DRINKING WATER TREATMENT PLANTS THAT SERVICE RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITIES. BY HARNESSING QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL VARIATION IN LOAN RECEIPT, THE PROJECT WILL EXAMINE HOW THESE LOANS AFFECT DRINKING WATER POLLUTION AND HOW THEY SHAPE SHORT- AND LONG-RUN MORTALITY AND DISEASE BURDENS AMONG OLDER AMERICANS. BECAUSE SOME LOANS TARGET SPECIFIC POLLUTANTS, LIKE ARSENIC OR PATHOGENS, THE ANALYSIS WILL EXAMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE LOANS SPECIFICALLY AFFECT THE POLLUTANTS THEY TARGET AND THE HEALTH CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE POLLUTANTS. TO ENABLE THIS RESEARCH, THE PROJECT WILL COMPILE THE MOST COMPLETE SET OF RECORDS ON DRINKING WATER SYSTEMS LINKED TO POLLUTION MEASURES BASED ON FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT REQUESTS MADE TO EACH OF THE 50 STATES. THESE DATA WILL BE POSTED ONLINE TO CATALYZE BROADER RESEARCH ON DRINKING WATER POLLUTION AND HEALTH. THIS PROJECT WILL COMBINE THESE DRINKING WATER RECORDS WITH THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL HEALTH DATASET—MEDICARE ADMINISTRATIVE DATA FOR 100% OF BENEFICIARIES—ALLOWING FOR RIGOR, ACCURACY, AND GENERALIZABILITY OF FINDINGS. BENEFICIARY IDENTIFIERS WILL ALLOW US TO FOLLOW INDIVIDUALS OVER TIME REGARDLESS OF WHETHER AND WHERE THEY RELOCATE, WITH MINIMAL ATTRITION. THE MEDICARE DATA PROVIDE THE 9-DIGIT ZIP CODE OF RESIDENCE, ALLOWING THE ANALYSIS TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF INDIVIDUALS MORE PRECISELY THAN PRIOR RESEARCH. IN ADDITION, THE ANALYSIS WILL EXAMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH LOW-INCOME COMMUNITIES AND COMMUNITIES OF COLOR BENEFIT EQUALLY FROM DRINKING WATER IMPROVEMENT POLICIES, BOTH IN SPENDING AND HEALTH TERMS, AND IT WILL SUMMARIZE THE DISTRIBUTION OF DRINKING WATER QUALITY BY HOUSEHOLD RACE, INCOME, AND OTHER IMPORTANT DEMOGRAPHICS.

UNDERSTANDING CROSS-NATIONAL HEALTH DIFFERENCES AT OLDER AGES AND THEIR CAUSES

RESEARCH INITIATIVE ON MARKET FRICTIONS AND FINANCIAL RISKS, 2024-2025 -THIS AWARD WILL FUND A SERIES OF MEETINGS WHERE RESEARCHERS WILL PRESENT NEW RESULTS IN MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICS FOCUSED ON ISSUES AFFECTING THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS AWARD IS FUNDED THROUGH A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN NSF AND THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY, OFFICE OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH. THE TOPICS INCLUDED ALL FOCUS ON FRICTIONS AND RISK. THE KEY AREAS ARE MARKET AND FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS; SECURITIES FINANCING, COLLATERAL, AND CASH MARKETS; MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE, WITH EMPHASIS ON THE TRADING PROCESSES AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS WHO FACILITATE TRANSACTIONS; MARKET CONNECTEDNESS; FUNDING AND CAPITAL MARKET FRICTIONS; FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC STABILITY; AND FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL INTERCONNECTEDNESS OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

SYNTHESIZING, INTERPRETING, AND EXTRAPOLATING INTERVENTIONS TO FOSTER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT “SYNTHESIZING, INTERPRETING, AND EXTRAPOLATING INTERVENTIONS TO FOSTER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT” WILL SUPPORT DIVERSE SCHOLARS OF EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT USING DIFFERENT EMPIRICAL STRATEGIES TO INVESTIGATE THE SOURCES OF TREATMENT EFFECTS OF SUCCESSFUL EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS AND TO COMPARE THE GROWTH OF SKILLS BY AGE ACROSS THEM. IT DRAWS ON A WEALTH OF DATA COLLECTED ON THREE INFLUENTIAL PROGRAMS (THE PERRY PRESCHOOL PROGRAM, THE ABECEDARIAN PROJECT, AND JAMAICA REACH UP AND LEARN) AND SUBSEQUENT IMPLEMENTATIONS AND ADAPTATIONS. MEMBERS OF OUR TEAM HAVE ACTIVELY DESIGNED, COLLECTED, AND ANALYZED DIFFERENT SUBSETS OF THESE PROGRAMS EVALUATED BY RANDOM ASSIGNMENT. SOME PROGRAMS HAVE LONG-TERM FOLLOW-UPS. THIS RESEARCH HAS FIVE MAIN AIMS: (1) USING COMMON (ACROSS STUDIES) DYNAMIC ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORKS DEVELOPED AND APPLIED IN DIFFERENT DISCIPLINES, WE ANALYZE LONGITUDINAL DATA ON THE GROWTH OF COMPARABLE MEASURES OF SKILLS AND OUTCOMES FROM MAJOR EARLY CHILDHOOD INTERVENTIONS TARGETED TO DISADVANTAGED CHILDREN, CONTROLLING FOR FAMILY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WE CONDUCT MEDIATION AND MODERATION ANALYSES TO CONTROL FOR ENDOGENEITY OF INTERVENTION-INDUCED CHANGES IN MEDIATORS AND MODERATORS. WE EXAMINE THE INTRA- AND INTER-GENERATIONAL IMPACTS OF THE INTERVENTIONS WITH LONG TERM FOLLOW UP, TAKING PARTICIPANTS WELL INTO THEIR MIDDLE AGE (ABC) AND LATE MIDDLE AGE (PERRY). THESE ANALYSES ADJUST FOR ATTRITION AND NON-RESPONSE. WE USE BOTH LARGE SAMPLE INFERENTIAL METHODS AND DESIGN-BASED SMALL-SAMPLE RANDOMIZATION INFERENCE. WE HARMONIZE MEASURES AND OUTCOMES AND REQUIRE THOSE WE USE TO SATISFY METRIC INVARIANCE CRITERIA; (2) BUILDING ON OUR PREVIOUS RESEARCH, WE USE EMPIRICALLY VALIDATED DYNAMIC MODELS TO FORECAST EXPERIMENTAL OUTCOMES OUT-OF-SAMPLE. WE BUILD THEORETICALLY- AND EMPIRICALLY-GROUNDED TOOLS TO ESTIMATE THE LONG-RUN IMPACTS OF SHORT-RUN INTERVENTIONS THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO OTHER PRACTITIONERS; (3) UPDATE AND EXTEND COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES OF EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME, WE INCORPORATE IMPACTS ON ADULT CHILDREN AND SIBLINGS AS WELL AS IMPACTS ON MIDDLE AGE AND LATE MIDDLE AGE HEALTH AND EARNINGS OF THE ORIGINAL PARTICIPANTS. WE INVESTIGATE THE IMPACT OF EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS ON SOCIAL MOBILITY; (4) EXAMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF HOME VISITING PROGRAMS. WE ANALYZE THE INFLUENTIAL JAMAICA REACH UP AND LEARN HOME VISITING PROGRAM AND MANY PROGRAMS INSPIRED BY IT. WE COMPARE CHILD GROWTH TRAJECTORIES FROM THESE PROGRAMS WITH THOSE FROM MORE COMPREHENSIVE OMNIBUS (AND EXPENSIVE) EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS, MANY OF WHICH HAVE A HOME VISITING COMPONENT. THIS WILL FACILITATE ISOLATION OF THE ROLE OF HOME VISITING IN PROMOTING CHILD DEVELOPMENT; AND (5) WE INVESTIGATE IN DETAIL THE ROLES OF PARENT (CAREGIVER)-CHILD, HOME VISITOR-CHILD, AND HOME VISITOR-CAREGIVER INTERACTIONS IN PROMOTING SKILL DEVELOPMENT IN A UNIQUELY WELL-DOCUMENTED ADAPTATION OF JAMAICA REACH UP: CHINA REACH (10 SITES). WE QUANTITATIVELY ASSESS THE IMPACT OF “SCAFFOLDING” MEASURED ON A WEEKLY BASIS ON THE GROWTH OF CHILD SKILLS.

NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION RESEARCH

EFFECT OF EMERGENCY CARE AVAILABILITY ON RACIAL DISPARITIES IN ACCESS & OUTCOMES

DETERMINANTS OF SAVING IN 401(K) PLANS -- CONTINUATION

SYNTHESIZING AND INTERPRETING THE EVIDENCE ON EARLY INTERVENTIONS

THE IMPACT OF EXEMPTING MEDICAL PROVIDERS FROM MALPRACTICE PROTECTION

THE IMPACTS OF MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO PREVENT COVID-19 TRANSMISSION IN AMERICAN INDIAN COMMUNITIES - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT THE IMPACTS OF MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO PREVENT COVID-19 TRANSMISSION IN AMERICAN INDIAN COMMUNITIES VERY LITTLE IS KNOWN ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LOCALLY-MANDATED COVID-19 MITIGATION POLICIES SUCH AS NON- PHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS (NPI) ON THE HEALTH AND WELLBEING OF MEDICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SUCH AS AMERICAN INDIANS (AI) LIVING IN RURAL TRIBAL LANDS. THERE IS AN URGENT NEED TO EVALUATE THE EFFECT OF ALREADY IMPLEMENTED MEASURES ON THE SPREAD OF COVID-19, THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THOSE MEASURES IN THESE COMMUNITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL SPILLOVER EFFECTS ON NON-AIAN COMMUNITIES. THE STAGGERED NATURE OF THE NPI IMPLEMENTATION IN TRIBAL LANDS AND THE INDEPENDENCE OF SOVEREIGN NATIONS’ POLICY DECISIONS FROM LOCAL (E.G. COUNTY-LEVEL) POLICIES PRESENT A UNIQUE QUASI-NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN POLICY TIMING, ALLOWING US TO STUDY SPILLOVER EFFECTS FROM TRIBAL NPIS TO CONNECTED NON-TRIBAL AREAS. OUR RESEARCH EFFORTS SEEK TO IMPROVE AMERICAN INDIAN HEALTH BY UNDERSTANDING AND EVALUATING THESE NPI MEASURES ON AN NIH-DESIGNATED DISPARITY COMMUNITY. THIS R01 PROPOSAL HAS FOUR SPECIFIC AIMS: (1) IDENTIFY WHETHER COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS ARE RELATED TO THE EARLY CLOSURE OF AMERICAN INDIAN RESERVATIONS AND/OR TRIBAL CASINOS AMONG NATIVE AND NON-NATIVE POPULATIONS LIVING ON AND OFF OF ADJACENT RESERVATION LANDS. (2) IDENTIFY THE CHANGE IN COMMUTER PATTERNS AND MOVEMENT BEHAVIORS AS A RESULT OF NPIS. (3) USE IN-TIME CLAIMS DATA TO ANALYZE HOW THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NPIS AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE EPIDEMIC AFFECTED UTILIZATION OF DIFFERENT NON-COVID-19 HEALTH CARE SERVICES AND FACILITIES. (4) CONDUCT A SURVEY OF AMERICAN INDIANS LIVING IN RURAL AREAS TO CREATE A NEW PRIMARY DATA RESOURCE AND CROSS-VALIDATE THE RESULTS WE OBTAIN THROUGH ANALYSIS OF SECONDARY DATA OF CELL PHONE TRAFFIC FLOWS. THE LONG- TERM GOAL OF THIS PROPOSAL IS TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE ANALYTICAL TOOLS THAT COULD BE APPLIED WITH LARGE SECONDARY DATASETS TO AID THE EVALUATION AND DESIGN OF PUBLIC POLICIES TO ADDRESS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCIES IN AI POPULATIONS. OUR CENTRAL HYPOTHESIS IS THAT THE TIMELY IMPLEMENTATION OF TRIBAL NPIS REDUCED THE INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS IN AI COMMUNITIES AND IN TRAFFIC-CONNECTED AREAS. HOWEVER, WE ALSO EXPECT THAT THE SECONDARY EFFECTS OF NPIS, SUCH AS ECONOMIC HARDSHIP AND UNDER-UTILIZATION OF NON-COVID-RELATED HEALTH CARE, WOULD BE STRONGER ON TRIBAL LANDS. WE WILL USE AN INNOVATIVE TWO-PRONGED APPROACH TO COMBINE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF SECONDARY BIG DATA SOURCES WITH PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION TO PROVIDE ROBUST EVIDENCE ON THE CURRENT AND FUTURE EFFECTS OF THESE POLICIES. THIS PROPOSAL IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND RELATED POLICIES ON TRIBAL COMMUNITIES IS UNDER-RESEARCHED, UNDER-FUNDED, AND NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD, AND YET RELEVANT NOT ONLY FOR AI TRIBAL POLICIES AND POPULATIONS BUT FOR REGIONAL HEALTH AND ECONOMIC POLICIES. OUR RESEARCH IS GUIDED BY THE C.A.R.E. PRINCIPLES OF INDIGENOUS DATA GOVERNANCE DEVELOPED BY OUR TEAM MEMBERS. IT IS INNOVATIVE BECAUSE IT APPLIES TECHNIQUES FROM ECONOMICS, COMPUTER SCIENCE AND PUBLIC HEALTH TO DELIVER ACTIONABLE RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE POLICY IMPLEMENTATION.

NBER RETIREMENT RESEARCH CENTER

EDUCATION RESEARCH PROGRAM

CHOICE AND CONSEQUENCES IN THE MEDICARE PART D PLAN

CHILDREN & NEIGHBORHOODS: RANDOMIZED STUDY OF MOBILITY (CONTINUATION-REVISED)

STRUCTURAL RACISM AND DISCRIMINATION IN THE EXPANSION OF HOSPITAL STROKE CARE CAPACITY: A MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS ON ACCESS TO CARE, TREATMENT, AND OUTCOMES - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT STRUCTURAL RACISM AND DISCRIMINATION IN THE EXPANSION OF HOSPITAL STROKE CARE CAPACITY ALTHOUGH ADVANCES IN THE TREATMENT OF STROKE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY FOR STROKE PATIENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, THERE IS A GROWING DISPARITY IN THE PROVISION OF STROKE SERVICES BETWEEN DISADVANTAGED POPULATIONS AND OTHERS. NO STUDIES HAVE EXAMINED THE ROLE OF STRUCTURAL RACISM AND DISCRIMINATION (SRD) IN THE EXPANSION OF STROKE CARE CAPACITY ACROSS COMMUNITIES AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON HEALTH DISPARITY PATIENTS. THE LONG-TERM GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO IDENTIFY SYSTEM-LEVEL PATHWAYS IN THE DELIVERY OF ACUTE STROKE CARE THAT CONTRIBUTE TO THE GROWING DISPARITIES FOR NIH-DESIGNATED HEALTH DISPARITY POPULATIONS (DEFINED AS RACIAL/ETHNIC MINORITY, LOW-INCOME, AND RURAL PATIENTS). THE OVERALL OBJECTIVE IS TO DETERMINE THE MECHANISMS THROUGH WHICH HEALTH DISPARITY PATIENTS EXPERIENCE SRD IN STROKE CARE. USING NATIONAL DATA FROM 2009 TO 2019, WE PROPOSE THREE AIMS TO TEST THE FOLLOWING HYPOTHESES: AIM 1, THAT DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES (DEFINED AS SEGREGATED AREAS WITH HIGH SHARES OF HEALTH DISPARITY POPULATIONS) EXPERIENCE DIFFERENTIAL ADOPTION OF LEVELS OF STROKE CARE, RESULTING IN INCREASED DISPARITIES IN POTENTIAL ACCESS TO CARE RELATIVE TO OTHER COMMUNITIES. AIM 2, THAT HEALTH DISPARITY PATIENTS IN SEGREGATED COMMUNITIES EXPERIENCE INCREASED DISPARITIES IN ACTUAL ACCESS AND TREATMENT DUE TO PATIENT REDISTRIBUTION ACROSS HOSPITALS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF STROKE CARE AND DIFFERENTIAL TREATMENT WITHIN HOSPITALS. AIM 3, THAT INDIVIDUALS IN DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES AND HEALTH DISPARITY PATIENTS EXPERIENCE WIDENING DISPARITIES IN HEALTH AND FUNCTIONAL OUTCOMES. IN AIM 1, WE WILL IDENTIFY WHICH TYPES OF DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES, IF ANY, WERE LEFT BEHIND IN GAINING STROKE CARE ACCESS, AND WHETHER RACIAL OR ETHNIC SEGREGATION AND INCOME INEQUALITY CONTRIBUTE TO THESE STRUCTURAL DISPARITIES IN GEOGRAPHIC ACCESS. THESE RESULTS WILL AID CERTIFICATION BODIES TO CONSIDER INCORPORATING COMMUNITY NEED IN CERTIFICATION GUIDELINES. IN AIM 2, OUR RESULTS WILL ILLUMINATE PATIENT REDISTRIBUTION PATTERNS IN COMMUNITIES THAT GAIN ACCESS TO STROKE CARE AND PINPOINT PATIENTS WHO EXPERIENCE DISPARITIES IN ACTUAL ACCESS AND TREATMENT DEPENDING ON THEIR RACE, ETHNICITY, AND INCOME AS WELL AS THE LEVEL OF SEGREGATION IN EACH OF THOSE DIMENSIONS. RESULTS WILL IDENTIFY THE TYPES OF COMMUNITIES WHERE OUTREACH MIGHT BE MOST EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING DISPARITIES IN STROKE CARE. IN AIM 3, OUR RESULTS WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF HEALTH DISPARITIES AMONG STROKE PATIENTS A) BETWEEN DISADVANTAGED AND NON-DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES AFTER ADOPTION OF STROKE CARE, COMPARED TO COMMUNITIES WITH NO CHANGE; AND B) BETWEEN HEALTH DISPARITY AND OTHER PATIENTS WITHIN THE SAME COMMUNITY WHEN THOSE COMMUNITIES EXPERIENCE CHANGES IN STROKE CARE, RELATIVE TO THOSE IN COMMUNITIES WITH NO CHANGE IN ACCESS TO STROKE CARE. THESE FINDINGS WILL IDENTIFY SPECIFIC COMMUNITIES WHERE ADDITIONAL INTERVENTIONS (E.G., MOBILE STROKE UNITS, ENHANCING TELEHEALTH ACCESS) COULD YIELD THE GREATEST BENEFITS.

IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON SAFETY NET PERFORMANCE, DISPARITIES, AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN - PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC HAS BEEN A MAJOR TEST OF THE HEALTH CARE DELIVERY SYSTEM, DISRUPTING PRIMARY AND MENTAL HEALTH CARE TO VULNERABLE CHILDREN AND THREATENING THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF PROVIDERS. IN DOING SO, THE PANDEMIC CREATED AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXAMINE WHERE THE DELIVERY SYSTEM IS ROBUST AND WHERE IMPROVEMENTS AND ALTERNATIVE POLICY APPROACHES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED. FOR CHILDREN WITH PRE-EXISTING VULNERABILITIES THESE DISRUPTIONS, IN THE FACE OF INCREASED RISKS FROM SOCIAL ISOLATION AND ECONOMIC STRESSORS, ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. HOW HEALTH SYSTEMS RECOVER AND RESPOND TO THE NEEDS OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPEAKS TO THE STRUCTURE OF SAFETY NET SYSTEMS AND THE POLICIES THAT SUPPORT THEM. THE PROPOSED STUDY EXAMINES MULTIPLE VULNERABLE AND AT-RISK CHILD POPULATIONS IN SAFETY NET SYSTEMS – CHILDREN WITH EMOTIONAL DISORDERS, CHILDREN WHO EXPERIENCED PRIOR ABUSE, CHILDREN IN FOSTER CARE, HOMELESS CHILDREN, CHILDREN WHO IDENTIFY AS LGBTQ+, AND THOSE WHO ARE MAKE BLACK, INDIGENOUS AND PEOPLE OF COLOR (BIPOC). THE PROPOSED STUDY USES ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORD DATA FROM THE ADVANCE CLINICAL DATA RESEARCH NETWORK WHICH REPRESENTS MORE THAN 500,000 CHILDREN TREATED ANNUALLY AT SAFETY NET, COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTERS. THIS UNIQUE CLINIC NETWORK CARES FOR LARGELY UNINSURED AND PUBLICLY INSURED CHILDREN IN 30 STATES. IN ADDITION, THE STUDY ALSO USES MEDICAID DATA IN 3 OF THE LARGEST STUDY STATES TO EXAMINE ADDITIONAL PRIMARY AND MENTAL HEALTH CARE OUTCOMES. THE AIMS OF THE STUDY ARE TO EXAMINE CHANGES IN PRIMARY AND MENTAL HEALTH CARE TO VULNERABLE CHILDREN THROUGH THE PANDEMIC, TRANSITION AND RECOVERY PERIODS, TO EXAMINE HEALTH INEQUITIES IN CARE OVER TIME, AND TO UNCOVER CLINIC, COMMUNITY, AND PAYMENT POLICY DRIVERS IN SAFETY NET PERFORMANCE, IN ORDER TO INFORM A MULTI-PRONGED, CORRECTIVE POLICY RESPONSE TO REDRESS GAPS.

NBER RETIREMENT RESEARCH CENTER

NBER RETIREMENT RESEARCH CENTER

THE IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE AND POLLUTION ON MORTALITY, MORBIDITY, AND HEALTH CARE COST AMONG THE ELDERLY

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, MORTALITY, AND MORBIDITY IN OLDER AMERICANS

EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD EFFECTS ON HEALTH AND WELL-BEING

ESTIMATING THE RETURNS TO MEDICAL CARE SPENDING

EFFECTS OF HIGH-POVERTY NEIGHBORHOODS ON YOUTH (CONTINUATION-REVISED)

ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE -THE CURRENT SYSTEM OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS FOR THE NATION IS UNDER PRESSURE BECAUSE OF INCREASING COSTS, DECLINING SURVEY RESPONSE RATES, AND SHORTFALLS IN ITS ABILITY TO CAPTURE TRANSFORMATION DRIVEN BY NEW TECHNOLOGIES. THE ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE (EMRI) WILL SUPPORT AND CATALYZE RESEARCH FOCUSED ON IMPROVING OFFICIAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS FOR THE COUNTRY THROUGH SYSTEMATIC USE OF THE DATA GENERATED BY THE 21ST CENTURY INFORMATION ECONOMY. THE METHODOLOGIES, TECHNIQUES, AND TOOLS DEVELOPED BY THE EMRI WILL ENABLE MORE TIMELY, ACCURATE AND GRANULAR MEASURES OF KEY ECONOMIC OUTCOMES INCLUDING PRICES, PRODUCTIVITY, OUTPUT, WAGES, AND EMPLOYMENT. IMPROVEMENTS IN THESE STATISTICS WILL BENEFIT THE PLANNING AND DECISION-MAKING OF BUSINESS, HOUSEHOLDS, AND POLICYMAKERS, AND ALLOW BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF HOW TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS AFFECT THE ECONOMY. THE ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE (EMRI) IS A RESEARCH CENTER LAUNCHED BY THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NBER) TO INITIATE AND SUPPORT RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS AMONG FEDERAL STATISTICAL AGENCIES, THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, AND ACADEMIC EXPERTS IN ORDER TO ADVANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ECONOMIC MEASURES WITH AN EMPHASIS ON TRACKING THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TECHNICAL CHANGE AND SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. THE EMRI WILL SUPPORT DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS THAT SHOW HOW THE PRODUCTION OF OFFICIAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS CAN BE MODERNIZED. IN ITS FIRST PHASE, THE EMRI WILL SUPPORT RESEARCH IN FOUR AREAS, (1) HOW MEASUREMENT OF RETAIL SPENDING AND INFLATION CAN BE REDESIGNED TO MAKE USE OF ITEM-LEVEL TRANSACTIONS DATA TO VALUE TECHNOLOGICALLY DRIVEN AND OTHER QUALITY CHANGES EMBEDDED IN RETAIL GOODS, (2) INTEGRATION OF ADMINISTRATIVE AND AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY DATA TO PRODUCE NEW STATISTICS ON THE GIG ECONOMY, (3) USE OF NEW INFORMATION ON INCOME STATEMENTS OF BUSINESSES TO LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR IMPROVING THE MEASUREMENT OF INTANGIBLE CAPITAL TO ACCOUNT FOR INVESTMENTS IN R&D, AND (4) LINKING OF DATA FROM THE NSF BUSINESS R&D AND INNOVATION SURVEY TO OTHER BUSINESS DATA HOUSED AT THE CENSUS BUREAU TO GENERATE NEW ESTIMATES OF THE CONTRIBUTION OF R&D TO PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING. THE EMRI ALSO WILL SUPPORT TWO ADDITIONAL RESEARCH PROJECTS ON ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT BASED ON IDEAS RECEIVED VIA AN OPEN CALL FOR PROPOSALS FROM THE COMMUNITY AND RUN COMPETITIONS TO SUPPORT FIVE DATA PURCHASE GRANTS TO ENCOURAGE EXPLORATION AND USE OF NEW DATA SOURCES TO SUPPORT NEW OR IMPROVED ECONOMIC MEASURES. EMRI WILL HOST AN ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON THE ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT RESEARCH THEME TO FOSTER CONSTRUCTIVE COLLABORATIONS TOWARDS IMPROVING THE NATION?S ECONOMIC STATISTICS. EMRI PROJECTS WILL PRODUCE CUTTING EDGE RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT AND NEW METHODS FOR LEVERAGING LARGE-SCALE ?NATURALLY OCCURRING DATA??I.E., DATA CREATED BY BUSINESSES, HOUSEHOLDS, NON-PROFIT INSTITUTIONS, AND GOVERNMENTS DURING THE COURSE OF THEIR NORMAL ACTIVITIES?FOR ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS. THIS TARGETED RESEARCH WILL CREATE THE KNOWLEDGE AND METHODS NEEDED TO RE-ENGINEER THE EXISTING SYSTEM OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS SO THAT THE METHODS FOR DATA COLLECTION, CONSTRUCTION, AND DISSEMINATION ARE BASED ON 21ST CENTURY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TO EFFECTIVELY MEASURE THE 21ST CENTURY ECONOMY. THE RESEARCH WILL PRODUCE NEW METHODS FOR CAPTURING HOW FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGIES AFFECT ECONOMIC OUTCOMES FOR HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES, AND HOW TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AFFECTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY AND ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

WOMEN EMPOWERMENT & CHILD HEALTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (CONTINUATION)

IMPACT OF MEDICARE ON UTILIZATION AND HEALTH DISPARITIES

THE ECONOMICS OF ELECTRONIC NICOTINE DELIVERY SYSTEMS: ADVERTISING AND OUTCOMES

NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION RESEARCH

THE LONG-RUN IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON MORTALITY AND DISEASE BURDEN AMONG US ELDERLY AND DISABLED ADULTS - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT THE LONG-RUN IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON MORTALITY AND DISEASE BURDEN AMONG US ELDERLY AND DISABLED ADULTS NATURAL DISASTERS HAVE INCREASED IN FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY IN RECENT DECADES, A TREND PROJECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. THE RISKS THESE DISASTERS POSE TO INDIVIDUAL HEALTH AND WELL-BEING ARE HEIGHTENED AMONG OLDER ADULTS WITH AGE-RELATED DISABILITIES OR CHRONIC ILLNESS, SUCH AS THOSE LIVING WITH ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE OR DEMENTIA. PUBLIC POLICIES REGARDING DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE SERVE AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN AVOIDING OR REDUCING THE HEALTH IMPACTS OF DISASTERS AND IMPROVING INDIVIDUAL HEALTH RESILIENCY. THE OPTIMAL DESIGN OF THESE POLICIES DEPENDS CRUCIALLY ON QUANTIFYING THE SHORT- AND LONG-RUN HEALTH RISKS IMPOSED BY DISASTERS, PRECISELY IDENTIFYING THE MOST VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, AND UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING MECHANISMS THAT DRIVE AND MEDIATE OUTCOMES. HOWEVER, MUCH REMAINS UNKNOWN ABOUT THESE IMPORTANT DIMENSIONS. THIS PROJECT WILL USE INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL ADMINISTRATIVE MEDICARE DATA ON ALL ELDERLY (65+) AND LONG-TERM DISABLED BENEFICIARIES FROM 1992– 2017 TO ESTIMATE THE SHORT- AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF A BROAD RANGE OF NATURAL DISASTERS – SUCH AS HURRICANES, TORNADOES, AND FLOODS – ON HEALTH, HEALTH CARE USE, AND HEALTH-RELATED EXPENDITURES AMONG THE ELDERLY. THE STUDY WILL COMPILE A COMPREHENSIVE AND SPATIALLY DETAILED DATABASE OF US NATURAL DISASTERS FROM A VARIETY OF DATA SOURCES. THE MEDICARE DATA PROVIDE THE 9-DIGIT ZIP CODE OF RESIDENCE, ALLOWING RESEARCHERS TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF VICTIMS MORE PRECISELY THAN PRIOR RESEARCH. THE PROJECT WILL TRACK INDIVIDUALS LIVING IN DISASTER-AFFECTED AREAS BEFORE THE DISASTER REGARDLESS OF WHERE THEY MOVE, AND A CONTROL GROUP OF UNAFFECTED ELDERLY WILL BE USED TO ESTABLISH HOW OUTCOMES WOULD HAVE EVOLVED IN THE ABSENCE OF THE EVENT. THE PROJECT WILL ALSO USE A NEW MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH TO IDENTIFY VULNERABLE SUBPOPULATIONS BASED ON INDIVIDUAL HEALTH CHARACTERISTICS (E.G., PRE-EXISTING CHRONIC CONDITIONS), DEMOGRAPHIC TRAITS (E.G., AGE, RACE, SEX), AND LOCAL ECONOMIC AND PUBLIC HEALTH CIRCUMSTANCES (E.G., PER CAPITA INCOME, PREVALENCE OF OBESITY, COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION IN THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM'S COMMUNITY RATING SYSTEM). THE PROJECT WILL ALSO ASSESS SEVERAL CONTINUITY-OF-CARE MECHANISMS THAT COULD MODERATE OR EXACERBATE POST-DISASTER MORTALITY AND DISEASE IMPACTS, INCLUDING DAMAGE TO HEALTH CARE FACILITIES, LOSS OF ACCESS TO ONE’S PHYSICIAN, AND HEALTH PLAN NETWORK RESTRICTIONS. THIS ANALYSIS WILL BE PERFORMED FOR THE WHOLE POPULATION OF BENEFICIARIES AND FOR SUBPOPULATIONS THOUGHT TO BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO CONTINUITY-OF-CARE DISRUPTIONS, LIKE ADULTS WITH MULTIPLE PRE-EXISTING CHRONIC CONDITIONS. FINALLY, THE PROJECT WILL ESTIMATE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CERTAIN CHARACTERISTICS (E.G., HEALTH CARE AVAILABILITY, LOCAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, AND HEALTHY BEHAVIORS) IN AREAS WHERE VICTIMS RELOCATE TO FOLLOWING A DISASTER CAN EXPLAIN THEIR HEALTH OUTCOMES.

RESEARCH INITIATIVE ON MARKET FRICTIONS AND FINANCIAL RISKS -THIS AWARD WILL FUND A SERIES OF MEETINGS WHERE RESEARCHERS WILL PRESENT NEW RESULTS IN MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICS FOCUSED ON ISSUES AFFECTING THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS AWARD IS FUNDED THROUGH A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN NSF AND THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY, OFFICE OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH. THE TOPICS INCLUDED ALL FOCUS ON FRICTIONS AND RISK. THE KEY AREAS ARE MARKET AND FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS; SECURITIES FINANCING, COLLATERAL, AND CASH MARKETS; MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE, WITH EMPHASIS ON THE TRADING PROCESSES AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS WHO FACILITATE TRANSACTIONS; MARKET CONNECTEDNESS; FUNDING AND CAPITAL MARKET FRICTIONS; FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC STABILITY; AND FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL INTERCONNECTEDNESS OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION RESEARCH

EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES

DOES HEALTH INSURANCE PROMOTE HEALTH THROUGH PROVIDERS AND NETWORKS? - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT DOES HEALTH INSURANCE PROMOTE HEALTH THROUGH PROVIDERS AND NETWORKS? THROUGH THEIR VARYING PROVIDER NETWORKS AND COVERAGES, HEALTH INSURANCE PLANS DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY STEER PATIENTS TOWARD SOME CLINICIANS AND HOSPITALS AND AWAY FROM OTHERS. IF PROVIDERS DIFFER IN THEIR QUALITY OF CARE AND ESPECIALLY IF THEY PROVIDE BETTER CARE FOR CERTAIN TYPES OF PATIENTS, SUCH NETWORK VARIATION CAN MEANINGFULLY AFFECT HEALTH OUTCOMES AT THE PLAN LEVEL, AND NOT JUST THE PROVIDER LEVEL. YET, CONSUMERS SELECTING HEALTH PLANS LACK INFORMATION ABOUT WHICH PLANS WILL DIRECT THEM TO BETTER PROVIDERS, OBSCURING THIS POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT CHANNEL TO IMPROVING POPULATION HEALTH. THIS PROJECT WILL DEVELOP NOVEL OUTCOME-BASED MEASURES OF INSURANCE PLAN QUALITY BASED ON WHERE ENROLLEES RECEIVE CARE, AND TAKING ACCOUNT HOW CAUSAL IMPACTS ON HEALTH VARY ACROSS PROVIDER NETWORKS. BY FURTHERING THE SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROVIDER QUALITY AND PATIENT OUTCOMES AT THE PLAN LEVEL, WE AIM TO EQUIP PATIENTS WITH NEW INFORMATION FOR SELECTING INSURANCE PLANS. OUR MEASURES WILL ALSO PROVIDE REGULATORS WITH NEW INSTRUMENTS TO REWARD PLANS THAT MAKE PEOPLE HEALTHIER. AT THE CORE OF OUR RESEARCH PLAN ARE NEW, CAUSAL ESTIMATES OF HOW MORTALITY IMPACTS VARY ACROSS HOSPITALS AND PHYSICIANS AND, IN TURN, ACROSS THE HEALTH PLANS THAT RELY ON DIFFERENT PROVIDER NETWORKS. WE FOCUS ON OLDER AMERICANS ENROLLED IN MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PLANS, LEVERAGING NOVEL DATA ON THE PROVIDER NETWORKS USED BY DIFFERENT MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PLANS. THE ESTIMATES WILL CHARACTERIZE WHICH HOSPITALS AND PROVIDERS PRODUCE THE BEST OUTCOMES FOR BENEFICIARIES WITH DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHICS AND COMORBIDITIES AND THUS WHICH PLANS ARE SUITABLE FOR EACH TYPE OF PATIENT BY DIRECTING THEM TO PROVIDERS WHO PRODUCE GOOD OUTCOMES FOR CONDITIONS THEY HAVE OR ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE PROJECT HAS FOUR PRIMARY AIMS: AIM 1: MEASURE AND VALIDATE MORTALITY EFFECTS FOR HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS AIM 2: LINK PHYSICIAN AND HOSPITAL MORTALITY EFFECTS TO PLAN MORTALITY EFFECTS AIM 3: EXPLORE HETEROGENEITY IN MORTALITY EFFECTS ACROSS BENEFICIARIES AIM 4: EVALUATE THE IMPACT OF POLICY PROPOSALS

THE ECONOMICS OF COUNTERINSURGENCY IN THE PHILIPPINES

THE IMPACTS OF ENHANCED DRUG-PATENT EXAMINATION - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT THE IMPACTS OF ENHANCED DRUG-PATENT EXAMINATION THE LEGAL PATENTABILITY REQUIREMENTS ARE DESIGNED TO RESPECT THE BALANCE BETWEEN PATIENT ACCESS TO EXISTING LONGEVITY-IMPROVING DRUGS AND INCENTIVIZING THEIR EXISTENCE IN THE FIRST PLACE. HOWEVER, THE PATENT SYSTEM MAY FAIL TO ACHIEVE THIS BALANCE IF IT DOES NOT PROVIDE PATENT EXAMINERS WITH THE RESOURCES—MAINLY, TIME—NEEDED TO APPLY THESE PATENTABILITY STANDARDS. GIVEN THE LEGAL PRESUMPTION OF VALIDITY OF INCOMING PATENT APPLICATIONS, INSUFFICIENT EXAMINATION TIME MAY LEAD TO CONCERNS THAT THE U.S. PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE (PTO) WILL ISSUE PATENTS ON NON-NOVEL OR OBVIOUS INNOVATIONS, A RESULT WHICH MAY UNNECESSARILY INHIBIT PATIENT ACCESS AND THEREBY COMPROMISE PATIENT OUTCOMES. PATENT QUALITY CONCERNS OF THIS NATURE HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY PARAMOUNT IN THE CASE OF “SECONDARY” PATENTS—I.E., PATENTS ON SUBSIDIARY DRUG FEATURES SUCH AS ON ROUTES OF ADMINISTRATION. GIVEN THAT SECONDARY PATENT APPLICATIONS ARE OFTEN FILED YEARS AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE ACTIVE- INGREDIENT PATENT, THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MEANINGFULLY EXTEND THE EFFECTIVE PATENT LIVES OF GIVEN DRUG PRODUCTS, POTENTIALLY LIMITING ACCESS ON THE MARGIN TO CLINICALLY VALUABLE DRUGS. IN THIS PROJECT, WE PROPOSE TO INVESTIGATE THE FULL EXTENT TO WHICH SECONDARY PATENTING PRACTICES MAY BE EXTENDING EFFECTIVE PATENT LIVES OF FDA-APPROVED DRUGS. FURTHER, DRAWING ON CERTAIN PTO REFORMS AND FEATURES, WE WILL INVESTIGATE THE IMPACTS OF INCREASING EXAMINATION TIME ON DRUG-PATENT EXAMINATION QUALITY. IN PARTICULAR, WE WILL ADDRESS FOUR AIMS: COMPILING, REVIEWING AND CODING DATA FROM BOTH THE PTO AND THE FDA, WE WILL BUILD A DATABASE OF SMALL-MOLECULE DRUG PATENTS ASSOCIATED WITH FDA-APPROVED DRUG PRODUCTS FROM THE MID-1980S TO THE PRESENT, CONTAINING VARIOUS INFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SUCH PATENT, INCLUDING INFORMATION (IF ANY) ON CLAIMS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DRUG FEATURES. WE WILL SIMILARLY BUILD A DATABASE OF LARGE-MOLECULE DRUG PATENTS, THOUGH THIS EFFORT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A DEEPER AND MORE EXTENSIVE REVIEW OF RAW PTO MATERIALS GIVEN THE LACK OF A CONGRESSIONALLY MANDATED LIST OF BIOLOGICS-RELATED PATENTS ASSOCIATED WITH FDA-APPROVALS. USING THESE DATA AND EMPLOYING VARIOUS QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL APPROACHES, WE WILL ESTIMATE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EXAMINATION TIME ALLOTTED TO EXAMINERS AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE PATENTS THEY ISSUE MEET THE LEGAL PATENTABILITY REQUIREMENTS. DRAWING ON THE RESULTS FROM AIM #3, WE WILL RUN SIMULATION EXERCISES TO ASSESS THE DEGREE TO WHICH AN INCREASE IN EXAMINATION TIME WILL SHORTEN THE EFFECTIVE PATENT LIVES OF APPROVED FDA DRUG PRODUCTS AND THEREAFTER DRAW ON VARIOUS ESTIMATED MOMENTS FROM THE GENERIC-ENTRY LITERATURE TO ESTIMATE THE RESULTING EFFECTS ON INCREASED/ACCELERATED PATIENT ACCESS TO APPROVED MEDICATIONS.

WORKSITE WELLNESS: A FIELD EXPERIMENT ON PARTICIPATION INCENTIVES & SELECTION INTO WELLNESS PROGRAMS

LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS AND THE QUALITY OF LONG-TERM CARE PROVIDED TO OLDER ADULTS - OTHER PROJECT INFORMATION – PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS AND THE QUALITY OF LONG-TERM CARE PROVIDED TO OLDER ADULTS THE RAPID AGING OF THE U.S. POPULATION, WITH HIGH RATES OF ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE AND RELATED DEMENTIAS (ADRD),IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES IN THE DEMAND FOR LONG TERM CARE (LTC) SERVICES. ADEQUATELY MEETING THIS DEMAND AND ENSURING THAT OLDER ADULTS ARE ABLE TO AGE WITH DIGNITY WILL REQUIRE BOTH A LARGE AND HIGH-QUALITY LTC WORKFORCE. YET LOW WAGES, COMBINED WITH HIGHLY DEMANDING WORK, MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FILL CURRENT POSITIONS FOR NURSING ASSISTANTS AT NURSING HOMES AND FOR HOME HEALTH CARE AIDES. THIS RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT THE ROLE OF THE WORKFORCE IN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW QUALITY OF LTC IN THE U.S. AND THE ABILITY OF THE CURRENT SUPPLY OF LTC WORKERS TO MEET FUTURE DEMAND. POLICY MAKERS HAVE A NUMBER OF TOOLS TO INFLUENCE THE QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF THE LTC WORKFORCE, BUT THERE IS A LACK OF EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ABOUT THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS THESE POLICY LEVERS HAVE ON THE SIZE AND NATURE OF THE LTC WORKFORCE, OR ON THE QUALITY OF LTC DELIVERED TO OLDER ADULTS. USING EXTENSIVE VARIATION IN LABOR MARKET POLICES OVER A LONG TIME RANGE (1999-2018) AND RICH OUTCOMES DATA FROM THE CMS, WE WILL ADDRESS SEVERAL IMPORTANT QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW GOVERNMENT POLICIES MIGHT IMPACT THE LTC WORKFORCE AND ELDER OUTCOMES. THE PROJECT HAS FOUR SPECIFIC AIMS. AIM 1, TO EXAMINE THE IMPACT OF STATE LTC WORKER REGULATIONS ON THE QUALITY OF LTC, EXAMINES POLICIES TARGETED SPECIFICALLY AT THE LTC SECTOR, INCLUDING MINIMUM TRAINING REQUIREMENTS FOR NURSING HOME AND HOME AIDES AND MINIMUM STAFFING REQUIREMENTS FOR NURSING HOMES. AIM 2, TO ASSESS HOW GOVERNMENT LABOR MARKET POLICY AFFECTS LTC QUALITY, EVALUATES MINIMUM WAGES, EARNED INCOME TAX CREDITS, AND CHILD CARE TAX CREDITS, THREE FEDERAL AND STATE POLICIES THAT HAVE BEEN SHOWN TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON THE OVERALL LABOR MARKET. AIM 3, TO EXAMINE THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION POLICY ON LTC QUALITY, FIRST DOCUMENTS THE IMPACT THAT IMMIGRATION FLOWS HAVE ON THE SIZE OF THE LTC WORKFORCE, BOTH IN NURSING HOMES AND PEOPLE'S HOMES, AND THEN USES INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE TECHNIQUES TO EXAMINE HOW CHANGES IN THE STOCK OF IMMIGRANT WORKERS IMPACT PATIENT QUALITY OUTCOMES. AIM 4, TO ASSESS IMPACTS OF LABOR MARKET POLICY ON ADRD CARE, FOCUSES ON INDIVIDUALS WITH ADRD A GROUP THAT IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON LTC AND MAY BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED BY CHANGES IN THE LTC WORKFORCE DUE TO THEIR VULNERABILITY AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR SPECIALIZED CARE. TAKEN TOGETHER, THIS SET OF ANALYSES WILL PROVIDE A NOVEL LENS THROUGH WHICH TO VIEW GOVERNMENT LABOR MARKET POLICIES THAT DRIVE THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF LTC. RESULTS CAN INFORM EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING DESIGNED TO PROMOTE AN ADEQUATE WORKFORCE TO MEET THE COUNTRY'S INCREASING DEMAND FOR LTC SERVICES.

A GENERALIZED ANALYSIS OF THE DIRECT AND SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF TEST-BASED RETENTION POLICIES

INCREASING MIDLIFE MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY IN WHITE AMERICANS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

THE IMPACT OF WELLNESS PROGRAMS AND INCENTIVES ON PREVENTIVE SERVICES

SOCIAL SECURITY PRIVATIZATION: INVESTMENT CHOICE AND FIELD EXPERIMENTS IN MEXICO

NEW PERSPECTIVES ON AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

DIMENSIONS OF SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING: AGING, RELIGIOSITY, AND ADAPTATION

RIDIR: A BIG DATA APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING AMERICAN GROWTH

INTEGRATING MODELS OF HEALTH AND RETIREMENT

CONVERGENCE ACCELERATOR PHASE I (RAISE): UNLOCKING THE POWER OF DATA AND SCIENCE TO EMPOWER AMERICAN WORKERS

ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS, SOCIAL NETWORKS, AND OLDER AGE HEALTH AND MORTALITY

THE LONG TERM IMPACT OF INCOME TRANSFERS DURING CHILDHOOD

THE EFFECTS OF NEW E-CIGARETTE INTERNET SALES BANS AND E-CIGARETTE FLAVOR BANS ON TOBACCO USE BY YOUTH, YOUNG ADULTS AND ADULTS - PROJECT SUMMARY USE OF ALL TOBACCO PRODUCTS BY YOUTH AND YOUNG ADULTS UP TO AGE 25 POSES A SERIOUS PUBLIC HEALTH CONCERN BECAUSE THIS GROUP IS AT RISK OF LONG-TERM HEALTH EFFECTS AND NEUROLOGICAL DAMAGE FROM NICOTINE EXPOSURE. INTERVENTIONS TARGETED AT THEM TO DISCOURAGE TOBACCO USE CAN HELP LOWER THE TRAJECTORY OF NICOTINE ADDICTION AND USE OF OTHER ADDICTIVE SUBSTANCES OVER THE LIFE CYCLE. REDUCING THEIR ACCESS TO E-CIGARETTES AND ALTERING APPEALING ATTRIBUTES OF E-CIGARETTES ARE AMONG THE CORNERSTONES OF A STRATEGIC PREVENTION POLICY FRAMEWORK. THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST PLAUSIBLY CAUSAL EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TWO KEY POLICIES IN AFFECTING TOBACCO USE BY YOUTH, YOUNG ADULTS AND ADULTS. THESE REGULATIONS ARE: 1) A BAN ON INTERNET SALES OF ALL E-CIGARETTE PRODUCTS; AND 2) A COMPREHENSIVE BAN ON ALL ADDED FLAVORS IN ALL E-CIGARETTE PRODUCTS – INCLUDING THOSE EXEMPT FROM THE CURRENT FEDERAL BAN. INTERNET SALES BANS HAVE JUST BEEN ENACTED AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE SPEAKING TO ITS CAUSAL EFFECT ON E-CIGARETTE USE. THESE NEW BANS ARE INTENDED TO TARGET YOUTH AND YOUNG ADULTS, BUT THEY APPLY TO ALL SALES. AS A RESULT, SPILLOVERS OF THE POLICY EFFECTS TO ADULTS ARE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE E-CIGARETTES ARE POTENTIALLY BENEFICIAL TO ADULT SMOKERS WHO ARE TRYING TO QUIT SMOKING, IT IS IMPORTANT TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER THESE BANS MAINLY AFFECT YOUTH AND YOUNG ADULTS OR ALSO HAVE ANY SPILLOVER EFFECTS ON ADULTS AND IN PARTICULAR ADULT SMOKERS. WE WILL ASSESS SUCH POTENTIAL SPILLOVERS OF INTERNET SALES BANS, AND COMPREHENSIVE FLAVOR BANS ON TOBACCO USE OUTCOMES AMONG ADULTS. BEYOND DESCRIPTIVE COMPARISONS, THERE EXISTS VIRTUALLY NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON HOW EFFECTIVE THESE REGULATIONS WOULD BE IN CURTAILING TOBACCO USE AT DIFFERENT AGE LEVELS. THIS PROJECT WILL CAPITALIZE ON NATURAL EXPERIMENTS EXPLOITING VARIATION IN THE TIMING OF THE ADOPTION OF BANS ON ONLINE E-CIGARETTE SALES AND ON ADDED FLAVORS IN ALL E-CIGARETTE PRODUCTS, TO ADDRESS THIS CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE GAP AND PROVIDE THE FIRST CAUSAL ESTIMATES IN THE LITERATURE OF THESE REGULATIONS. ANALYSES WILL BE BASED ON A DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCES FRAMEWORK APPLIED TO MICRO-LEVEL DATA FROM SIX LARGE-SCALE NATIONAL SURVEYS OF YOUTH, AND YOUNG ADULTS AND ADULTS. AS PART OF OUR MAIN AIMS, THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME OF THE FIRST EVIDENCE ON HOW STATE PENALTIES IMPOSED ON RETAILERS FOR SELLING E-CIGARETTES TO UNDERAGE YOUTH AND YOUNG ADULTS ARE IMPACTING E-CIGARETTE USE BY THESE GROUPS AND HOW THEY ARE OBTAINING THEIR E-CIGARETTES. DESPITE THE AGE RESTRICTIONS, THE CONSIDERABLE LEVEL OF E- CIGARETTE USE BY YOUTH INDICATES THAT THE MINIMUM PURCHASE AGE LAWS BY THEMSELVES HAVE HAD LIMITED EFFECTIVENESS. THUS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND WHETHER STRICTER PENALTIES CAN REDUCE THE OVERALL USE OF E- CIGARETTES.

TRANSPORTATION ECONOMICS IN THE 21ST CENTURY -THIS AWARD WILL FUND A SERIES OF MEETINGS WHERE NBER RESEARCHERS WILL PRESENT THE RESULTS OF WHITE PAPERS ON VARIOUS ASPECTS OF TRANSPORTATION ECONOMICS. TOPICS INCLUDE PROCUREMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND SUPPLY CHAINS; THE EFFECTS OF POLICIES AIMED AT DE-CARBONIZATION OF THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR; QUANTIFYING THE WIDESPREAD ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE U.S. TRANSPORTATION SECTOR INCLUDING EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT, PRODUCTIVITY, AND HOUSEHOLD TIME USE; HOW TO BEST MEASURE THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF COMPLICATED TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS, AND THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF TRANSPORTATION POLICIES AND PROJECTS ACROSS INCOME, RACIAL, AND ETHNIC GROUPS. THIS AWARD IS FUNDED THROUGH A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN NSF AND THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION RESEARCH

EVALUATING CHANGES IN BIOPHARMACEUTICAL THERAPIES FOR MEDICARE AND OTHER PAYERS

IBSS: THE EVOLUTION OF CULTURE AND INSTITUTIONS

KNOWLEDGE, NETWORKS, AND THE PRODUCTIVITY OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH HISTORIES AND SOCIAL CAPITAL

NEIGHBORHOOD POVERTY & MENTAL HEALTH OF LOW-INCOME MOTHERS: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

THE EFFECTS OF INFLUENZA VACCINATION ON THE RATE OF SERIOUS HEALTH EVENTS

USING FOODAPS FOR RESEARCH IN DIET, HEALTH, NUTRITION, AND FOOD SECURITY

MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATIONAL PRACTICES ACROSS THE US

EVALUATION OF STATE AND LOCAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS AND POLICIES

DAT: CONNECTING OUTCOME MEASURES OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP, TECHNOLOGY AND SCIENCE (COMETS)

EVALUATING THE TEACH TOOL TO IMPROVE EDUCATION EFFECTIVENESS

PANEL DATA FOR THE STUDY OF NETWORK ECONOMICS AND RISK SHARING -HOW INDIVIDUALS COPE WITH ADVERSITY OR FIND JOBS, AMONG OTHER THINGS, DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITHIN COMMUNITIES AND ACROSS GEOGRAPHIC AREAS. RESEARCH IN MANY DISCIPLINES SUCH AS ECONOMICS, SOCIOLOGY, COMPUTER SCIENCE, AND STATISTICS THEREFORE RELY HEAVILY ON SOCIAL NETWORK DATA. COLLECTING DETAILED NETWORK DATA ON POPULATIONS IS VERY COSTLY AND, CONSEQUENTLY, RESEARCH OFTEN INCLUDES ONLY A SMALL PART OF POPULATIONS IN THEIR ANALYSIS. THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL DEVELOP INNOVATIVE METHODS TO INEXPENSIVELY COLLECT NETWORK DATA, USE THE METHOD TO CREATE TWO LARGE DATASETS ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS AMONG VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. THE RESEARCHERS WILL MATCH THESE NETWORK DATA WITH INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES AS WELL AS PHYSICAL AND MENTAL HEALTH STATUS. IN ADDITION, THE RESEARCHERS WILL BUILD STATISTICAL TOOLS TO FACILITATE THE USE OF THESE DATA SETS AND MAKE THESE DATASETS AND THE TOOLKIT FREELY AVAILABLE TO OTHER RESEARCHERS. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL IMPROVE RESEARCH ON SEVERAL TOPICS SUCH AS SOCIAL LEARNING, RISK SHARING, AND THEREFORE IMPROVE POLICY MAKING. THE RESULTS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS POLICIES. THIS PROJECT WILL DEVELOP NEW METHODS TO CREATE NETWORK DATA, USE THE METHODS TO BUILD TWO LARGE DATA SETS ON VULNERABLE PEOPLE, AND MERGE THESE DATA SETS WITH DATA ON SEVERAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL OUTCOMES AND MAKE THE DATA SETS AVAILABLE TO RESEARCHERS. TO STUDY A LARGE SAMPLE OF VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, THE NETWORK RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THEM BOTH WITHIN THE LOCAL COMMUNITY AND ACROSS LARGE GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, ONE NEEDS A TOOL TO MAKE THE DATA COLLECTION SCALABLE. THIS PROJECT WILL USE AGGREGATE RELATIONAL DATA (ARD) TO MAKE THIS FEASIBLE. BY ASKING INDIVIDUALS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITH A PARTICULAR TRAIT THEY ARE LINKED TO (FOR VARIOUS SETS OF TRAITS), THE PIS CAN ESTIMATE A NETWORK FORMATION MODEL THAT GIVES A PICTURE OF HOW COMMUNITY-TO-COMMUNITY RELATIONSHIPS VARY ACROSS REGIONS. ARD IS VERY CHEAP TO COLLECT, IN CONTRAST WITH DETAILED, COMPLETE NETWORK DATA. EQUIPPED WITH ARD AND APPROPRIATE STATISTICAL AND ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES, RESEARCHERS CAN SAMPLE NUMEROUS MORE RESPONDENTS AND CREATE MORE NETWORK DATA. THIS RESEARCH PRODUCT WILL BENEFIT THEORISTS, ECONOMETRICIANS, STATISTICIANS, AND SOCIOLOGISTS. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL ALLOW RESEARCHERS TO STUDY TOPICS SUCH AS DIFFUSION, SOCIAL LEARNING, MULTIPLEXING IN NETWORKS, RISK SHARING, AND SOCIAL ISOLATION, AMONG OTHERS. IT WILL ALLOW RESEARCHERS AND POLICYMAKERS TO ACCESS A GRANULAR DATASET THAT CAN BETTER INFORM POLICIES GENERALLY AND PARTICULARLY ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. THE RESULTS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY AND TARGETING OF POLICIES. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

RESEARCH DESIGN MEETS MARKET DESIGN

NBER SUMMER INSTITUTE, 2013-2015

EXPECTATIONS AND CHOICE IN MACROECONOMICS: CAUSAL EVIDENCE

COLLABORATIVE PROPOSAL: THE NEXT GENERATION OF THE PENN WORLD TABLE

LEGAL ISSUES RELATING TO TEEN FERTILITY

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH NETWORK ON VALUING HEALTH RESEARCH

STATE BUILDING VIA PUNITIVE AND RESTORATIVE JUSTICE: EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT -THIS PROJECT SEEKS TO ADDRESS A FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION OF STATE FORMATION: HOW CAN WEAK AND FRAGILE STATES BECOME STRONG IN THE ABSENCE OF THE CAPACITY TO TAX? WE TEST ONE POSSIBLE ANSWER: PROVIDING JUSTICE AND RESOLVING DISPUTES. WHILE POLICYMAKERS AND ECONOMISTS HAVE OFTEN FOCUSED ON THE POWER TO TAX, THE HISTORICAL RECORD SUGGESTS THAT DISPUTE RESOLUTION MAY PROVIDE A USEFUL FIRST STEP IN BUILDING STRONG STATES THAT ARE ABLE TO DELIVER GOODS AND SERVICES FOR THEIR CITIZENS. WE WILL PROVIDE EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE ABOUT HOW TO BUILD STATE CAPACITY AND LEGITIMACY IN FRAGILE POST-CONFLICT SETTINGS AS WELL AS HOW DIFFERENT TYPES OF APPROACHES TO DISPUTE RESOLUTION CONTRIBUTE TO THIS GOAL. IN PARTICULAR, WE EXAMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STATE AND NON-STATE APPROACHES TO JUSTICE PROVISION. EXAMINING THESE ISSUES WILL ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE IN THE FIELDS OF POLITICAL ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, WITH KEY IMPLICATIONS FOR WELFARE. OUR COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND AN NGO STRENGTHEN THE PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN ACADEMIA, CIVIL SOCIETY, AND GOVERNMENT AND IS ITSELF A DIRECT EXAMPLE OF EVIDENCE-BASED POLICYMAKING. TO THIS END, WE EXAMINE THE RANDOMIZED ROLLOUT OF A LEGAL CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAM IMPLEMENTED AT SCALE IN THE TARGET CITY BY THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE AND A LOCAL NGO. THIS PROGRAM HAS (1) A ?PUNITIVE? LEGAL CAPACITY BUILDING ARM IN WHICH STATE LAWYERS SERVE AS NEIGHBORHOOD LEGAL REPRESENTATIVES WITH SUBSIDIZED SERVICES, AND (2) A ?RESTORATIVE? LEGAL CAPACITY BUILDING ARM IN WHICH A NEIGHBORHOOD LEADER PERFORMS THESE SAME FUNCTIONS. OUR GOAL IS TO EMPIRICALLY EXAMINE THE EFFECTS OF THIS PROGRAM ON PROPERTY RIGHTS SECURITY, CRIME, VIOLENCE, AND CITIZENS? WILLINGNESS TO PAY TAXES FOR THE FORMAL STATE. DOING SO WILL ENHANCE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW STRONG STATES CAN EMERGE WHEN THE CAPACITY TO TAX THEIR CITIZENS IS LOW TO BEGIN WITH: BY TAKING THE LEGAL ? NOT FISCAL ? PATH TO STATE CAPACITY, I.E., PROVIDING GREATER ACCESS TO JUSTICE AND RESOLVING DISPUTES EFFECTIVELY AND FAIRLY. FURTHERMORE, THE EXPERIMENTAL TREATMENT ARMS ARE GROUNDED IN DIFFERENT NOTIONS OF JUSTICE WHICH, IN THE CONTEXT OF MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD, OFTEN EXIST SIDE BY SIDE: PUNITIVE JUSTICE INVOLVING THE COERCIVE POWER OF THE STATE AND RESTORATIVE JUSTICE INVOLVING TRADITIONAL AUTHORITIES AND DEEP-SEATED COMMUNITY NORMS AROUND MENDING THE COMMUNITY. THIS ALLOWS US TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL COMPLEMENTARITIES BETWEEN FORMAL AND INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS OF JUSTICE IN BUILDING STRONG STATES. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

SAFETY NET PROGRAMS AND WELL-BEING -THIS AWARD FUNDS A RESEARCH PROJECT THAT WILL STUDY THE INTERACTIONS AMONG SEVERAL MAJOR GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PROGRAMS, INCLUDING THE SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM (SNAP), SPECIAL SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION PROGRAM FOR WOMEN (WIG), INFANTS, AND CHILDREN, MEDICAID AND THE CHILDREN?S HEALTH INSURANCE PROGRAM, THAT MAKE UP THE MAJORITY OF GOVERNMENT SAFETY NET PROGRAMS IN THE U.S. THE RESEARCHERS WILL STUDY TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THESE PROGRAMS; HOW BEST TO ADMINISTER THEM IN ORDER TO IMPROVE TARGETING; AND WHAT IMPACTS OF THESE PROGRAMS ON A WIDE VARIETY OF IMPORTANT OUTCOMES INCLUDING, EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES, EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES, AND MEASURES OF HEALTH. IN ADDITION TO TARGETING, THE RESEARCH WILL STUDY HOW INTERACTIONS AMONG THESE TRANSFER PROGRAMS IMPROVE THE WELL-BEING OF RECIPIENTS. TO DO SO, THE RESEARCHERS WILL LINK A LARGE NUMBER OF HIGH-QUALITY ADMINISTRATIVE DATA SETS TOGETHER. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL HELP DECISION MAKERS IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF TRANSFER PROGRAMS, CUT COST, AND IMPROVE THE WELL-BEING OF RECIPIENTS. IT WILL ALSO HELP TO ESTABLISH THE US AS A GLOBAL LEADER IN EFFICIENT PROVISION OF GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PROGRAMS. THIS AWARD FUNDS A RESEARCH PROJECT THAT WILL ADDRESS TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS REGARDING MODERN TRANSFER PROGRAMS IN THE US: (I) FACTORS INFLUENCING PROGRAM TAKE-UP AND TARGETING AND EXAMINES HOW THESE FACTORS INTERACT ACROSS DIFFERENT PROGRAMS; (II) EXPLORE THE IMPACT OF TRANSFER PROGRAMS ON PARTICIPANTS' ECONOMIC AND OTHER OUTCOMES. THE PIS WILL LEVERAGE RECENT RULE CHANGES IN THE U.S. THAT AFFECT TRANSACTION COSTS AND INFORMATIONAL BARRIERS IN DIFFERENT FRAMEWORKS. TO CONDUCT THIS COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS, THE RESEARCH UTILIZES LARGE, LINKED ADMINISTRATIVE DATASETS ENCOMPASSING SEVERAL MAJOR SAFETY NET PROGRAMS IN THE U.S. AND THOSE MEASURING IMPORTANT DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES SUCH AS EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES, HEALTH AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING. THE ANALYSIS OF THESE DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES WILL OFFER VALUABLE EVIDENCE TO INFORM ECONOMIC THEORY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF SUCH OUTCOMES AND PROVIDE NEW COST-BENEFIT AND WELFARE ESTIMATES FOR MAJOR PROGRAMS. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL HELP DECISION MAKERS IMPROVE THE EFFICIENCY OF TRANSFER PROGRAMS, CUT COST, AND IMPROVE THE WELL-BEING OF RECIPIENTS. IT WILL ALSO HELP TO ESTABLISH THE US AS A GLOBAL LEADER IN EFFICIENT PROVISION OF GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PROGRAMS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

CAREER: FIRMS AND THE MACROECONOMY -PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY DO NOT HAPPEN IN A VACUUM. A MAJORITY TAKE PLACE IN THE CONTEXT OF FIRMS. THIS PROJECT AIMS TO INTEGRATE DETAILED EMPIRICAL ANALYSES OF FIRMS? OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONTRACTS WITH HIGHER-LEVEL MACROECONOMIC INQUIRIES. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE US ECONOMY RAISE MANY INTRIGUING QUESTIONS THAT REQUIRE SUCH AN INTEGRATION. AS A FIRST EXAMPLE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES INCREASINGLY RELY ON NONPHYSICAL ASSETS (E.G., INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, SOFTWARE) RATHER THAN TRADITIONAL PHYSICAL ASSETS (E.G., PLANTS AND MACHINERY). WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR FIRMS? PRODUCTION DECISIONS AND FINANCING STRUCTURE? HOW MIGHT THIS DEVELOPMENT AFFECT MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES? AS A SECOND EXAMPLE, THE CONCENTRATION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE US ECONOMY HAS BEEN RISING (I.E., LARGE FIRMS ACCOUNT FOR A GROWING SHARE OF THE OUTPUT AND PRODUCTION ASSETS IN THE ECONOMY). WHAT UNDERLIES THE RISE OF LARGE FIRMS AND WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF RISING CONCENTRATION? TO BETTER UNDERSTAND FIRMS? ACTIVITIES IN PRACTICE, THIS PROJECT WILL COLLECT ORIGINAL MICRO DATA AND COMBINE KNOWLEDGE FROM DIFFERENT FIELDS (E.G., CORPORATE FINANCE, LAW, CONTRACTS). IT WILL THEN USE THE INSIGHTS FROM SUCH INVESTIGATION TO STUDY MACRO IMPLICATIONS AND POTENTIALLY SHED LIGHT ON THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC POLICIES. DATA COLLECTED FROM PRIMARY SOURCES IN THIS RESEARCH WILL BE SHARED PUBLICLY, AND RESEARCH ACTIVITIES IN THIS PROJECT ALSO HOPE TO FACILITATE COMMUNICATIONS AMONG RESEARCHERS IN DIFFERENT FIELDS. THE RESEARCH QUESTIONS WILL COVER TWO SETS OF TOPICS. THE FIRST SET OF QUESTIONS WILL FOCUS ON FIRMS? FINANCING ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY THEIR ABILITY TO BORROW. IN PARTICULAR, THE TRADITIONAL ACCOUNT OF LENDING IS THAT FIRMS PLEDGE PHYSICAL ASSETS, WHICH CREDITORS CAN SEIZE IN DEFAULT TO ENFORCE REPAYMENT. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEGAL SYSTEMS AND CAPITAL MARKETS, A PRIMARY FORM OF CORPORATE DEBT IN THE US IS BASED ON THE CASH FLOWS FROM FIRMS? OPERATIONS (NOT NECESSARILY PHYSICAL ASSETS). WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS MODERN FORM OF CORPORATE DEBT FOR THE AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF FIRMS, FOR THE GROWTH OF FIRMS AND THE ECONOMY, FOR AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION, AND FOR ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS? THE SECOND SET OF QUESTIONS WILL STUDY FIRMS? ASSETS AND OPERATIONS (E.G., THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF INTANGIBLE ASSETS), AS WELL AS THE LONG-RUN EVOLUTION OF FIRMS? ACTIVITIES TO PUT TODAY?S WORLD INTO PERSPECTIVE. IT WILL ALSO SHED LIGHT ON THE LANDSCAPE OF FIRMS (E.G., WHY SOME FIRMS ARE LARGE WHILE OTHERS ARE SMALL), AND THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE LARGEST FIRMS THAT PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE ECONOMY. TAKEN TOGETHER, THE RESEARCH IN THIS PROJECT HAS TWO MAIN OBJECTIVES: 1) UNCOVER KEY EMPIRICAL FACTS ABOUT FIRMS? ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, AND 2) UTILIZE THESE FACTS TO INFORM ECONOMIC MECHANISMS AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

THE IMPACT OF INTEGRATION: AN ANALYSIS OF THE METCO VOLUNTARY DESEGREGATION BUSING PROGRAM

SUMMER INSTITUTE WORKSHOP IN AGING AND HEALTH CARE

NEUROECONOMICS AND ALCOHOL CONTROL POLICY

TRADING, INSTITUTIONS, PRODUCT INNOVATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

PURPOSE: THE IMPACT OF WEATHER FORECASTS ON SMALL BUSINESS PERFORMANCE: METHODS AND EVIDENCE FROM ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) FORECASTS IN THE AMERICAN WEST LEAD PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: ABHISHEK NAGARAJ, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NBER) AND UC BERKELEY UNFUNDED COLLABORATOR: WEILONG WANG, POSTDOCTORAL FELLOW, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN JANUARY 2023, ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) EVENTS CAUSED WIDESPREAD DISRUPTIONS IN CALIFORNIA, WITH SMALL BUSINESSES SEVERELY AFFECTED. WEATHER FORECASTS PLAYED A CRUCIAL ROLE IN HELPING BUSINESSES AND COMMUNITIES PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE THE IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS BY PROVIDING ADVANCE WARNING OF THE TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATION OF EXPECTED FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS. ARS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT, PARTICULARLY IN THE AMERICAN WEST, AS CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVES MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE EVENTS. FORECASTS ARE POISED TO BE A KEY TOOL IN MITIGATING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF ARS ON VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES AND BUSINESSES BY PROVIDING ACTIONABLE INFORMATION TO INFORM EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE EFFORTS. WHILE THE VALUE OF FORECASTS IS WIDELY ACKNOWLEDGED, THE LACK OF STANDARD METHODS FOR RIGOROUSLY QUANTIFYING THEIR BENEFITS MEANS THAT ACCOUNTS OF THEIR IMPACTS REMAIN LARGELY ANECDOTAL. A SYSTEMATIC METHODOLOGY IS NEEDED TO QUANTIFY THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER FORECASTS, STARTING WITH SHORT TO MEDIUM-TERM PRECIPITATION FORECASTS SUCH AS THOSE ACCOMPANYING AR WEATHER EVENTS IN THE WEST. THE FINDINGS WOULD HELP VALUE IMPROVEMENTS IN FORECASTING ACCURACY AND GUIDE FUTURE INVESTMENT IN FORECASTING PRODUCTS TARGETED TOWARD IMPROVING AR PREDICTION IN THE AMERICAN WEST. TO ADDRESS THIS NEED, WE EMPLOY A NOVEL METHODOLOGY THAT USES THE APPLIED MICROECONOMICS TOOLKIT OF NATURAL EXPERIMENTS TO QUANTITATIVELY ESTIMATE THE IMPACT OF AR FORECASTS ON SMALL BUSINESS PERFORMANCE. THESE METHODS APPROXIMATE THE THOUGHT EXPERIMENT WE WOULD LIKE TO RUN: HOW WOULD ECONOMIC OUTCOMES DIFFER IF WE RANDOMLY IMPROVE FORECASTS ON CERTAIN DAYS BUT NOT OTHERS, KEEPING EVERYTHING ELSE, INCLUDING THE WEATHER ITSELF, CONSTANT? SPECIFICALLY, OUR APPROACH COMPARES SCENARIOS WHERE A LOCATION EXPERIENCES VERY SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT WAS WELL WARNED BY ACCURATE FORECASTS IN ONE CASE AND NOT ANOTHER. BY LOOKING AT VARIATIONS IN BUSINESS OUTCOMES (SUCH AS DIFFERENCES IN FOOTFALL OR REVENUE) ACROSS THE TWO SCENARIOS, WE CAN QUANTIFY THE VALUE OF IMPROVED PREDICTION OVER AND ABOVE THE EFFECT OF THE WEATHER ITSELF. OUR PROOF-OF-CONCEPT WORK QUANTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF 1-DAY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ACROSS A BROAD SAMPLE OF PLACES SUGGESTS THAT THIS APPROACH COULD BE PROMISING. OUR INITIAL RESULTS SUGGEST THAT RELATIVE TO WELL-CALIBRATED FORECASTS, ERRORS IN FORECASTS HAVE REAL EFFECTS ON SMALL BUSINESS PERFORMANCE. THE EFFECTS DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND DIRECTION OF ERROR, THE SEVERITY OF THE WEATHER EVENT, AND THE ESTABLISHMENT'S INDUSTRY. WE HOPE TO REFINE AND APPLY THESE METHODS TO ANALYZING AR FORECASTS ON DIFFERENT REGIONS IN THE AMERICAN WEST BETWEEN THE YEARS 2018-2023. DOING SO WILL ALLOW US TO UNDERSTAND (A) THE AVERAGE VALUE (IN DOLLARS) OF GOOD PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AND (B) THE VARIATION THAT DRIVES THIS AVERAGE BY CONSIDERING THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH THE VALUE OF SUCH FORECASTS IS HIGHER VERSUS LOWER, INCLUDING SEPARATING THE VALUE BY INDUSTRY, LOCATION AND WEATHER CONDITIONS. OUR WORK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SMALL BUT BURGEONING LITERATURE BY APPLYING AN ECONOMIC LENS TO ESTIMATE THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER FORECASTS. WE WILL BE THE FIRST TO LOOK SPECIFICALLY AT THE ROLE OF WEATHER FORECASTS AROUND AR EVENTS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW WE MIGHT MITIGATE THEIR ADVERSE SOCIETAL IMPACT. MORE GENERALLY, WE HOPE TO SHAPE INVESTMENT AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN TERMS OF IMPROVING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE.

CAREER: RELATIONSHIPS IN FINANCE

DAT: SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY AGENTS OF REVOLUTION (STAR) DATABASE: LINKING GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT, SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, FIRMS AND EMPLOYMENT

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS OF DECISION MAKERS AND THEIR MANAGEMENT -THIS RESEARCH WILL INVESTIGATE THE VALUE THAT THE DATA OF A CONSUMER HAS FOR THE FIRM THAT USES IT. IN MANY DIGITAL PLATFORMS, CONSUMER DATA IS OFTEN USED TO INTERMEDIATE THE NEEDS OF VARIOUS AGENTS WITH CONFLICTING INTERESTS?SUCH AS BUYERS AND SELLERS, DRIVERS AND RIDERS, OR SOCIAL-MEDIA USERS AND ADVERTISERS. THIS MAKES DETERMINING THE VALUE OF DATA ESPECIALLY COMPLEX. THIS RESEARCH WILL TACKLE SUCH COMPLEXITY TO PROVIDE A MORE COMPLETE ACCOUNT OF THE VALUE OF DATA?ESPECIALLY ITS DEPENDENCE ON PRIVACY-PROTECTION POLICIES. BY DOING SO, IT WILL ADVANCE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DEMAND FOR DATA IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY AND PROVIDE INSIGHTS INTO HOW DATA MARKETS WORK AND MAY BE AFFECTED BY POLICY INTERVENTIONS. THIS RESEARCH WILL ALSO SHED LIGHT ON THE DEBATE ABOUT HOW TO INDIVIDUALLY COMPENSATE CONSUMERS FOR THEIR DATA, WHICH MANY SCHOLARS AND POLICYMAKERS BELIEVE TO BE AN ESSENTIAL ASPECT OF A FUNCTIONING DATA MARKET. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL STUDY WHAT DETERMINES THE VALUE OF A SINGLE DATA RECORD FOR THE INTERMEDIARY THAT USES IT AS AN INPUT IN ITS BUSINESS. FOR INSTANCE, SUCH A RECORD CAN BE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A BUYER THAT AN E-COMMERCE PLATFORM STORES ON ITS SERVERS. WHEN DATA IS USED BY A THIRD PARTY (LIKE A PLATFORM) TO STRATEGICALLY DIRECT INTERACTIONS BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENTS (LIKE BUYERS AND SELLERS), ASSESSING ITS VALUE IS COMPLICATED AND CALLS FOR A NEW APPROACH. THE PROJECT SHOWS THAT THIS VALUE IS NOT JUST THE PAYOFF THE INTERMEDIARY DERIVES DIRECTLY FROM A RECORD (LIKE A PLATFORM?S TRANSACTION FEES). IT INVOLVES OTHER COMPONENTS, WHICH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY BIAS OUR ASSESSMENTS IF IGNORED. THEY CAPTURE EXTERNALITIES BETWEEN THE RECORDS OF, SAY, DIFFERENT BUYERS NOT BECAUSE OF A STATISTICAL CORRELATION, BUT BECAUSE OF HOW THE PLATFORM PARTITIONS ITS KNOWLEDGE OF THE BUYERS SO AS TO DIRECT SELLERS? RESPONSES (E.G., BY POOLING BUYERS INTO MARKET SEGMENTS). SUCH EXTERNALITIES CAN RENDER THE RECORD OF A LOW-SPENDING BUYER MORE VALUABLE THAN THAT OF A HIGH-SPENDING BUYER. THE FIRST PART OF THE PROJECT WILL STUDY CONTEXTS WHERE THE INTERMEDIARY ALREADY OWNS THE DATA AND CAN USE IT WITHOUT PEOPLE?S CONSENT. ITS CORE CONTRIBUTION IS TO SHOW HOW TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE VALUE OF INDIVIDUAL RECORDS AND CHARACTERIZE ALL ITS COMPONENTS. THE SECOND PART OF THE PROJECT WILL STUDY HOW THE VALUE OF DATA CHANGES WHEN EACH CONSUMER CAN WITHHOLD THEIR DATA FROM THE PLATFORM. ONE KEY INSIGHT IS THAT PRIVACY RIGHTS MAY NOT ONLY SHIFT WEALTH FROM DATA-USERS TO DATA-SOURCES (I.E., FROM INTERMEDIARIES TO CONSUMERS), BUT ALSO CHANGE THE VALUE OF DATA RECORDS ITSELF. FOR INSTANCE, IT CAN INCREASE THE VALUE OF SOME PEOPLE?S RECORDS AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS. THUS, PRIVACY CAN HAVE REDISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS ACROSS DATA-SOURCES, WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOCIAL INEQUALITY AND SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY PRIVACY-PROTECTION POLICIES. 1 THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

THE IMPACT OF DIRECT-TO-CONSUMER, VIDEO TELEMEDICINE

USING SATELLITE NATIONAL HEALTH ACCOUNTS TO UNDERSTAND HEALTH AND COST CHANGES

CONFERENCE: NBER SUMMER INSTITUTE 2023-2025 -THE NBER SUMMER INSTITUTE IS AN IMPORTANT ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPING NEW IDEAS AND FORGING COLLABORATIVE WORK RELATIONSHIPS. SUMMER INSTITUTE BRINGS TOGETHER ECONOMISTS AND SCHOLARS IN OTHER FIELDS FROM UNIVERSITIES, GOVERNMENT, AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FOR A FEW DAYS OR A FEW WEEKS OF SEMINARS, WORKSHOPS, CONFERENCES, AND COOPERATIVE RESEARCH. THE NBER SUMMER INSTITUTES GENERATE TIMELY AND INFLUENTIAL RESEARCH ON IMPORTANT ECONOMIC POLICY QUESTIONS RELATED TO SUCH TOPICS AS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STABILITY, ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY AND TECHNOLOGY, ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS, SOCIAL SECURITY POLICY, AND EDUCATIONAL POLICIES. THE WORKSHOPS ARE AN INVALUABLE PART OF THE RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE IN ECONOMICS AND ASSIST THE RESEARCH OF MANY ECONOMISTS. THE SUMMER INSTITUTE IS FOUR WEEKS LONG AND INCLUDES AT LEAST 50 SESSIONS ORGANIZED AND CO-ORGANIZED BY OVER 100 INDIVIDUALS. THERE ARE MORE THAN 2,800 ATTENDEES EACH SUMMER FROM OVER 425 UNIVERSITIES AND NON-ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS. SESSIONS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE AS LIVESTREAMS. ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF ALL ATTENDEES ARE NOT NBER AFFILIATES. WHILE THERE ARE MANY PRESENTATIONS OF WORK NEARING COMPLETION, EMPHASIS IS PLACED ON THE WORKSHOP ASPECTS OF THE PROGRAM WHERE NEW IDEAS ARE RAISED, PRELIMINARY RESEARCH IDEAS ARE DEVELOPED, AND PLANS FOR JOINT OR COORDINATED RESEARCH EFFORTS ARE ESTABLISHED. EFFORTS ARE MADE TO INCLUDE A WIDE VARIETY OF NEW PARTICIPANTS, AND TO REACH OUT TO WOMEN AND MINORITIES. CALLS FOR PAPERS ARE CIRCULATED WIDELY AND ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NBER WEBSITE. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION RESEARCH

RISK AND INEQUALITY IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY

HISTORICAL HOUSING PRICE DATA

THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE ON ADOLESCENT HEALTH AND ACADEMIC OUTCOMES -THE RESEARCH FUNDED BY THIS AWARD EXAMINES THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON THE MENTAL HEALTH AND ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENTS OF ADOLESCENTS. ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A CORRELATION BETWEEN HEAVY SOCIAL MEDIA USE ON THE ONE HAND AND POOR MENTAL HEALTH AND LACKING ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENTS OF US ADOLESCENTS ON THE OTHER HAND. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE GROWING INTEREST IN THIS TOPIC, THE DIRECTION OF CAUSATION HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED YET. IN OTHER WORDS, IT IS NOT KNOWN WHETHER ADOLESCENT SOCIAL MEDIA USE CAUSES WORSE HEALTH AND EDUCATION OUTCOMES, OR WHETHER POOR MENTAL HEALTH AND LACKING ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENTS LEAD TO HEAVY SOCIAL MEDIA USE BY ADOLESCENTS. THE RESEARCHERS PROPOSE AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS. ADOLESCENTS IN THIS EXPERIMENT ARE ASSIGNED TO TWO GROUPS: ONE GROUP IS ALLOWED TO USE SOCIAL MEDIA AS DESIRED; AND THE OTHER GROUP IS PROVIDED WITH INCENTIVES TO REDUCE SOCIAL MEDIA USE. DATA COLLECTED ON THE HEALTH AND EDUCATION OUTCOMES OF THE RESPECTIVE GROUPS WILL THEN ALLOW THE RESEARCHERS TO INFER THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE AMONG ADOLESCENTS. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE ON VARIOUS OUTCOMES, AS WELL AS THE MECHANISMS THROUGH WHICH THESE EFFECTS OCCUR. THESE RESULTS WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR DECISION MAKERS SEEKING TO REDUCE THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE ON ADOLESCENTS. THE RESEARCH TEAM USES EXPERIMENTAL METHODS TO INVESTIGATE THE CAUSAL IMPACTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE ON ADOLESCENT MENTAL HEALTH AND EDUCATION OUTCOMES. A TOTAL OF 3,500 ADOLESCENTS WILL BE RANDOMLY DIVIDED INTO A TREATMENT GROUP AND A CONTROL GROUP. SUBJECTS FROM THE TREATMENT GROUP WILL RECEIVE INCENTIVES TO REDUCE SOCIAL MEDIA USE, WHEREAS SUBJECTS FROM THE CONTROL GROUP WILL RECEIVE NO SUCH INCENTIVES. SOCIAL MEDIA USE WILL BE TRACKED USING A COMPUTER APPLICATION. OVER-SAMPLING OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH LOW SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS IS USED TO OBTAIN A REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE. TO MEASURE THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE, THE INVESTIGATORS WILL COMPARE THE SOCIAL MEDIA USE, THE MENTAL HEALTH OUTCOMES, AND THE ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE RESPECTIVE GROUPS. IN ADDITION TO EXPLORING THE MECHANISMS THROUGH WHICH THESE EFFECTS OCCUR, THE RESEARCHERS WILL EXAMINE WHETHER SOCIAL MEDIA USE AFFECTS VARIOUS SOCIOECONOMIC GROUPS IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THEY WILL COLLECT DATA ON THE HEALTH AND EDUCATION OUTCOMES OF RACIAL MINORITY GROUPS, UNDER-REPRESENTED GROUPS, AND GROUPS THAT TEND TO USE SOCIAL MEDIA MORE THAN THE REPRESENTATIVE ADOLESCENT. THIS PROJECT WILL HELP POSITION THE US AS A GLOBAL LEADER IN THE DESIGN OF MEASURES AIMING TO REDUCE THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE ON ADOLESCENTS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

CROSSING THE FINISH LINE: INTERVENING IN A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR EDUCATIONAL INVESTMENT -EARLY FERTILITY IS COMMON AMONG LOW-INCOME FEMALE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS RESULTING IN HIGH DROPOUT RATES AMONG THESE STUDENTS EVEN THOUGH FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES ARE AVAILABLE. THIS AWARD FUNDS RESEARCH THAT USES FIELD EXPERIMENTS AND MODERN ECONOMIC THEORY TO TEST WHETHER TWO LOW-COST INTERVENTIONS WILL BE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING DROPOUT RATES DUE TO UNPLANNED PREGNANCIES AMONG THESE STUDENTS. THE FIRST EXPERIMENT TESTS WHETHER COMBINING FINANCIAL INCENTIVES WITH DIRECTED INFORMATION CAMPAIGN CAN CHANGE BELIEFS ABOUT THE PERCEIVED LINK BETWEEN DELAYING CHILDBIRTH EARLIER IN LIFE AND INFERTILITY IN LATER LIFE. THE SECOND EXPERIMENT TESTS WHETHER PROVIDING FEMALE STUDENTS WITH UNCONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER WILL REDUCE RISKY BEHAVIOR AMONG THESE STUDENTS AND THUS INCREASE GRADUATION RATES. IN ADDITION TO CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMICS SCIENCE, THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL INFORM POLICY MAKERS ON HOW BEST TO ENSURE THAT HIGHLY TALENTED WOMEN WHO ENTER UNIVERSITIES ARE ABLE TO GRADUATE AND JOIN THE LABOR FORCE. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF THE FEMALE LABOR FORCE, INCREASE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND THE GENERAL STANDARD OF LIVING. THIS AWARD FUNDS RESEARCH THAT COMBINES ORIGINAL DATA COLLECTION WITH ADMINISTRATIVE DATA WITH RCTS TO STUDY THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TWO INTERVENTIONS IN REDUCING DROPOUT RATES AMONG LOW-INCOME FEMALE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS. THE FIRST EXPERIMENT MEASURES THE IMPACT OF AN INTERVENTION THAT TARGETS THE PERVASIVE BELIEF THAT CONTRACEPTIVE USE CAUSES INFERTILITY LATER IN LIFE; THE TREATMENT COMBINES CASH TRANSFERS WITH TARGETED INFORMATION DELIVERY AND COMPARES THIS TREATMENT TO A NON-COERCIVE CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFER PROGRAM DESIGNED TO GET WOMEN TO A FAMILY PLANNING CLINIC. THIS APPROACH WILL ALLOW THE PIS TO ESTABLISH CAUSALITY; SOMETHING PREVIOUS RESEARCH HAS NOT DONE. THE SECOND RCT WILL MEASURE THE IMPACT OF UCT TO FEMALE STUDENTS TO SEE IF IT REDUCES RISKY BEHAVIOR OF THESE STUDENTS AS COPING MECHANISMS FOR FINANCIAL HARDSHIPS. BESIDES CONTRIBUTION TO THE DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LITERATURE, THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL PROVIDE INPUTS INTO POLICIES TO INCREASE GRADUATION OF FEMALE STUDENTS. THE RESULTS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVED HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION, INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND IMPROVED LIVING STANDARDS FOR ALL. THE RESEARCH RESULTS COULD ALSO DECREASE INCOME INEQUALITY. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

TEST-BASED ACCELERATION IN MIDDLE SCHOOL MATH: IMPACTS ON COLLEGE ENTRY AND STEM MAJOR CHOICE FOR HIGH-ACHIEVING STUDENTS AND UNDER-REPRESENTED GROUPS

HOUSEHOLD EXPECTATIONS AND DECISIONS: CAUSAL EVIDENCE -THIS AWARD FUNDS RESEARCH IN MACROECONOMICS. THE RESEARCH TEAM WILL COMBINE A LARGE-SCALE REPEATED SURVEY OF US CONSUMERS WITH INFORMATION TREATMENTS AND EXTERNAL INFORMATION ON DECISION MAKING. THEY WILL USE THESE DATA TO CONSIDER FOUR RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN MACROECONOMICS. THE FIRST IS MECHANISMS UNDERLYING WAGE-PRICE SPIRALS, WHERE GENERAL INCREASES IN PRICES (INFLATION) LEAD WORKERS TO BARGAIN FOR HIGHER WAGES, WHICH IN TURN INCREASES BUSINESS COSTS AND RESULTS IN FURTHER UPWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES. SECONDLY, THE PI TEAM WILL CONSIDER HOW DIFFERENT KINDS OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AFFECT HOUSEHOLD SPENDING AND MANAGERIAL DECISIONS. THIRD, THE TEAM WILL TRACK HOW PEOPLE START TO PAY ATTENTION TO PRICE CHANGES (INFLATION) OVER TIME. FOURTH, THE TEAM WILL USE THE DATA TO CONSIDER HOW HOUSEHOLD EXPECTATIONS ABOUT BANK STABILITY AFFECT DEPOSIT DECISIONS. THE PROJECT INCLUDES A METHODOLOGICAL COMPONENT. THE TEAM EXPLORES POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES TO RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS FOR RESEARCH THAT SEEKS TO UNDERSTAND HOW BELIEFS AFFECT DECISIONS. THEY DEVELOP AN ALTERNATIVE TO RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS THAT USES HYPOTHETICAL QUESTIONS IN A SURVEY TO SEE IF THEY CAN RECOVER THE SAME EFFECTS. THE TEAM ALSO CONSIDERS WHETHER OR NOT LABORATORY DECISION-MAKING EXPERIMENTS CAN SERVE AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO FULL BLOWN RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS IN SURVEYS. THE FOUR SPECIFIC MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH QUESTIONS ARE EACH IMPORTANT FOR UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECT OF EXPECTATIONS AND INFORMATION ON MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

INCREASING COLLEGE ENROLLMENT THROUGH FAST TRACK ACCEPTANCES AND TARGETED MENTORING BY GUIDANCE DEPARTMENTS AND ADMISSIONS OFFICERS

OUTCOMES AND THE VALUE OF CHOICE IN ASSIGNMENT PROBLEMS

CAREER: LONG-RUN DETERMINANTS OF RACIAL INEQUALITY IN THE US -ECONOMIC DISPARITIES BETWEEN BLACK AND WHITE AMERICANS REMAIN ONE OF THE MOST STRIKING FORMS OF INEQUALITY IN THE US TODAY. MUCH OF THE ECONOMICS LITERATURE ON RACIAL INEQUALITY FOCUSES ON THE ROLE OF DISCRIMINATION, YET THIS FRAMEWORK EXPLAINS A DECLINING SHARE OF THE GAPS BETWEEN BLACK AND WHITE AMERICANS. THIS CAREER RESEARCH USES THREE PROJECTS AND A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE TO IDENTIFY THE DETERMINANTS OF RACIAL DISPARITIES AND SHED LIGHT ON THE CHANNELS THROUGH WHICH THESE GAPS OCCUR AND PERSIST. THE PROJECT COMBINES ORIGINAL DATA COLLECTION WITH NATURAL EXPERIMENTS AND FOCUSES ON HISTORICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL DETERMINANTS OF RACIAL INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY. THE FIRST PROJECT STUDIES THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF BLACKS IN JIM CROW SOUTH ON BLACK WEALTH ACCUMULATION WHILE THE SECOND PROJECT STUDIES THE ROLE OF US SOCIAL INSURANCE AND LABOR POLICY DESIGN IN GENERATING AND PERPETUATING RACIAL WEALTH INEQUALITY. THE THIRD PROJECT WILL STUDY THE LINK BETWEEN THE GREAT MIGRATION NORTH AND MASS INCARCERATION POLICIES IN THE NORTH THAT DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTED BLACK MEN, PUTTING THEM AT A SEVERE DISADVANTAGE IN THE LABOR MARKET. EACH OF THESE PROJECTS INVOLVES THE COLLECTION AND DIGITIZATION OF LARGE ORIGINAL HISTORICAL DATA. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT INPUTS INTO POLICIES TO REDUCE INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY AS WELL AS GENERATE EQUITABLE GROWTH. THIS CAREER RESEARCH USES THREE PROJECTS TO ADVANCE THE LITERATURE IN ECONOMIC HISTORY AND LABOR ECONOMICS. THE FIRST PROJECT EXPLORES THE DETERMINANTS OF SLOW RACIAL WEALTH CONVERGENCE FROM THE ABOLITION OF SLAVERY TO THE PRESENT, TESTING FOR THE EFFECT OF POLITICAL DIS-EMPOWERMENT ON WEALTH ACCUMULATION BY STUDYING THE GROWTH OF BLACK WEALTH UNDER JIM CROW. IT DIGITIZES ANNUAL, COUNTY-LEVEL RECORDS OF BLACK AND WHITE WEALTH FOR SIX SOUTHERN STATES AND USES THE STAGGERED ROLLOUT OF STATE LAWS LIMITING BLACK FRANCHISE TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF FRANCHISE RESTRICTIONS ON ECONOMIC MOBILITY. THE SECOND PROJECT EXPLORES THE ROLE OF US SOCIAL INSURANCE AND LABOR POLICY DESIGN IN THE EVOLUTION OF RACIAL INEQUALITY. THE PROJECT DIGITIZES STATE-LEVEL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE POLICY FROM 1937 TO 2020 AND EXAMINES THE ROLE OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON STATE POLICIES AS WELL AS THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN ELIGIBILITY AND GENEROSITY ON RACIAL GAPS. THE THIRD PROJECT INVESTIGATES THE LINK BETWEEN THE GREAT MIGRATION NORTH AND THE PHENOMENON OF MASS INCARCERATION, WHICH DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTED BLACK MEN AND PLACED THEM AT SERIOUS DISADVANTAGE IN THE LABOR MARKET. THE PROJECT CONSTRUCTS CAUSAL JURISDICTION SEVERITY MEASURES FROM CRIMINAL COURT RECORDS FROM DOZENS OF NORTHERN STATES AS WELL AS DATA ON MUNICIPAL ORDINANCES SPANNING THE 20TH CENTURY. IT USES THESE DATA TO INVESTIGATE THE LINK BETWEEN THE GREAT MIGRATION NORTH AND INCREASED RELIANCE ON PUNITIVE SOCIAL POLICY IN AMERICAN CITIES THAT LEADS TO MASS INCARCERATION OF BLACK MEN. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT INPUTS INTO POLICIES TO REDUCE INCOME INEQUALITY AS WELL AS GENERATE EQUITABLE GROWTH. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

THE SHORT AND LONG TERM EFFECTS OF JOB AND EARNINGS LOSSES ON HEALTH OUTCOMES

TARIFFS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE USA: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A NEW DATASET OF US PRODUCT-LEVEL TARIFFS, 1789 - PRESENT -THIS AWARD FUNDS AN INNOVATIVE RESEARCH ON THE ROLE OF TARIFFS PLAYED IN THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE US ECONOMY FROM AN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY TO AN INDUSTRIAL ONE IN THE 19TH AND 20TH CENTURIES. AT THE HEART OF THIS PROJECT IS THE COMPILATION OF A NEW OPEN-ACCESS DATABASE OF US TARIFFS SINCE 1789 FOR EVERY PRODUCT COVERED BY US TARIFF LAWS. THE DATABASE WILL BE EASILY ACCESSIBLE AND SEARCHABLE USING ANY TEXT EDITOR OR A SPREADSHEET APPLICATION AND IT ALLOWS USERS TO TRACE PRODUCT-LEVEL TARIFF PROTECTION FOR THE US ECONOMY SINCE 1789. THE RESEARCHERS WILL USE THIS DATA SET TO INVESTIGATE SEVERAL TRADE-RELATED QUESTIONS, SUCH AS WHY DIFFERENT PRODUCTS ATTRACTED DIFFERENT TARIFF STRUCTURES, WHAT ROLE TARIFFS PLAYED IN THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE US ECONOMY FROM AN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY TO AN INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY, AND HOW TARIFF POLICIES AFFECTED CONGRESSIONAL POLITICS IN THE 19TH AND EARLY 20TH CENTURIES. HAVING A COMPREHENSIVE OPEN-ACCESS DATA OF TARIFF RATES WILL ALLOW US CONSUMERS, PRODUCERS, AND POLICY MAKERS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW TARIFF POLICY HAS EVOLVED OVER TIME. THE DATA WILL ALSO HELP USERS EVALUATE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TARIFFS ON CONSUMERS AND PRODUCERS AND THUS THE WELLBEING OF AMERICANS. SINCE CURRENT POLICIES ARE A FUNCTION OF PAST POLICIES AND EXPERIENCE, THIS DATABASE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT INPUT FOR ANYONE THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN TRADE POLICY. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL INFORM TARIFF AND OTHER TRADE POLICIES. THIS AWARD FUNDS AND IMPORTANT AND INNOVATIVE RESEARCH ON THE HISTORY OF US TARIFF POLICY. THE CENTRAL PART OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT IS TO COMPILE A LARGE DATABASE OF PRODUCT-LEVEL TARIFFS FROM 1789 TO 1988 AND MERGED IT WITH THE POST-1988 TARIFF DATA. THE DATA WILL BE A USER-FRIENDLY TEXT-BASED DATABASE OF ALL US IMPORT TARIFFS AND USERS WILL BE ABLE TO FIND THE STATUTORY TARIFF RATE FOR EACH TARIFF LINE SINCE 1789 AS WELL AS TRACK TARIFF RATES BY SITC (REVISION 2) CODE AS WELL. THE RESEARCHERS WILL USE THIS DATASET TO STUDY THE POLITICAL AND BUREAUCRATIC DETERMINANTS OF TARIFF RATES IN THE EARLY US REPUBLIC (1789 ? 1861). IN ADDITION, THE RESEARCH WILL STUDY THE INCIDENCE OF TARIFF RATES BY FOCUSING ON THE PROGRESSIVITY AND REGRESSIVITY OF TARIFF RATES. THE RESEARCHERS WILL ALSO EXPLORE THE CONNECTION BETWEEN INDUSTRY LEVEL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, AND TARIFF POLICY USING NOVEL IDENTIFICATION STRATEGIES TO REVEAL CAUSAL IMPACTS OF TARIFF POLICY ON THESE OUTCOMES. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL INFORM NOT ONLY ACADEMIC INTERPRETATIONS OF US TRADE POLICY BUT ALSO HELP POLICY MAKERS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE AGGREGATE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF AMERICAN TRADE POLICY. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL PROVIDE INPUTS INTO MORE EFFICIENT TRADE POLICIES THUS INCREASE ECONOMIC GROWTH, BROADEN CONSUMER AND PRODUCER CHOICE, AND THUS IMPROVE THE WELLBEING OF AMERICANS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

EXPERIMENTALLY IDENTIFYING CONSTRAINTS TO RISK SHARING: SEPARATING LIMITED COMMITMENT, MORAL HAZARD AND HIDDEN INCOME

FRONTIER SEQUENCE-SPACE METHODS FOR HETEROGENEOUS-AGENT MODELS -HOUSEHOLDS DIFFER IN TERMS OF THEIR CONSUMPTION, INCOME, WEALTH, LOCATION, OR INFORMATION SETS; FIRMS DIFFER IN TERMS OF THEIR PRICES, PRODUCTIVITY, OR BALANCE SHEET POSITIONS. A LARGE BODY OF RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT THIS TYPE OF HETEROGENEITY MATTERS FOR MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS, YET MODELS THAT TAKE HETEROGENEITY INTO ACCOUNT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO SOLVE, LIMITING THE SPEED OF PROGRESS IN THE FIELD. THIS RESEARCH EXTENDS EARLIER WORK BY THE PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS IN THE THEORY AND COMPUTATION OF HETEROGENEOUS-AGENT MACROECONOMIC MODELS, TO DEAL WITH DIFFERENT TYPES OF HETEROGENEITY, SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD LOCATION CHOICE OR HETEROGENEITY AMONG FIRMS, AND TO ENABLE NEW APPLICATIONS, SUCH AS PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE CALCULATION OF OPTIMAL RULES. THE RESEARCH TEAM WILL CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CODEBASE AVAILABLE FOR USE BY ALL RESEARCHERS AND DECISION MAKERS, EXPANDING ITS FUNCTIONALITY AND DOCUMENTATION. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TEACHING SEQUENCE-SPACE METHODS AT AN ANNUAL WORKSHOP FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS, AS WELL AS DEVELOPING RELATED TEACHING MATERIAL. THIS RESEARCH PROVIDES INNOVATIONS THAT SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND THE SET OF MODELS THAT CAN BE SOLVED IN THE SEQUENCE SPACE AND THE ECONOMIC QUESTIONS THAT CAN BE TACKLED WITH THIS APPROACH. FIRST, IT PROVIDES A METHOD FOR SOLVING FOR THE FIRST-ORDER SOLUTION OF MODELS WHICH HAVE MANY ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES TO SOLVE FOR?SUCH AS MODELS WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS WITH HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS IN EACH LOCATION?BY LEVERAGING THE STRUCTURE OF SEQUENCE-SPACE JACOBIANS TO PROVIDE A RAPID ITERATIVE METHOD TO OBTAIN THE SOLUTION. SECOND, IT PROVIDES A METHOD FOR SOLVING FOR THE PORTFOLIOS OF AGENTS, WHO CAN CHOOSE TO INVEST IN MULTIPLE ASSETS BASED ON RISK-RETURN CONSIDERATIONS, JOINTLY WITH EQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS. THIRD, IT PROVIDES A METHOD FOR SOLVING FOR THE STEADY STATE OF RAMSEY OPTIMAL PLANS WHEN THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY FEATURES HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS THAT FACE IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK. FINALLY, IT PROVIDES A METHOD FOR SOLVING FOR THE GENERAL SECOND-ORDER SOLUTION IN THE SEQUENCE SPACE, UNLOCKING APPLICATIONS SUCH AS THE CALCULATION OF GENERALIZED IMPULSE RESPONSES FEATURING STATE AND SIGN DEPENDENCE AS WELL AS THE EFFECT OF AGGREGATE RISK ON AVERAGE OUTCOMES. FOR EACH OF THESE NEW METHODS, THE RESEARCHERS WILL RELEASE ACCESSIBLE AND DOCUMENTED CODE AS WELL AS TEACHING MATERIAL, FACILITATING ADOPTION AND PROGRESS IN THE FIELD. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: FOOD PRICE SPIKES IN A WARMING WORLD: ESTIMATING RISKS AND POLICY RESPONSES

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY: PUBLIC DATA AND RESEARCH

THE MEASUREMENT AND PRODUCTION OF QUALITY IN LONG-TERM CARE FACILITIES IN THE US -THIS RESEARCH EXAMINES WHY THE QUALITY OF CARE DELIVERED IN U.S. SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES VARIES SO WIDELY, AND WHETHER THIS VARIATION REFLECTS DIFFERENCES IN PREFERENCES OR CAPABILITIES. SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES -- COMMONLY KNOWN AS NURSING HOMES -- SERVE MORE THAN ONE MILLION AMERICANS ON ANY GIVEN DAY, WITH MOST CARE FINANCED BY PUBLIC PROGRAMS SUCH AS MEDICARE AND MEDICAID. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL OVERSIGHT, CARE QUALITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNEVEN, WITH MANY VULNERABLE PATIENTS EXPOSED TO INEFFECTIVE PROVIDERS. UNDERSTANDING HOW FACILITIES COMBINE LABOR, CAPITAL, AND ORGANIZATIONAL PRACTICES TO PRODUCE CARE -- AND WHY SOME ACHIEVE BETTER OUTCOMES THAN OTHERS -- IS ESSENTIAL TO INFORMING DEBATES ABOUT QUALITY IMPROVEMENT, MARKET REGULATION, AND PAYMENT DESIGN. THIS PROJECT DEVELOPS AN INNOVATIVE METHOD USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO ANALYZE LARGE DATA SETS, RESULTING IN NOVEL MEASURES OF PATIENT HEALTH AND FACILITY QUALITY. THE TEAM USES THESE MEASURES TO SHED LIGHT ON THE ECONOMIC FORCES THAT SHAPE PERFORMANCE IN THIS LARGE AND CONSEQUENTIAL INDUSTRY. THE INVESTIGATORS THEN ESTIMATE WHETHER AND HOW QUALITY DEPENDS ON NURSING HOME PRODUCTIVITY, PREFERENCES, CAPACITY, OWNERSHIP, AND POSSIBLE DIFFERENTIAL TREATMENT OF MEDICARE AND MEDICAID PATIENTS. THE FINDINGS IMPROVE THE EVIDENCE BASE FOR EFFORTS TO PROMOTE THE HEALTH AND WELFARE OF OLDER AMERICANS. THE PROJECT DEVELOPS AND ESTIMATES MODELS OF QUALITY AND PRODUCTION IN THE NURSING HOME SECTOR TO STUDY QUESTIONS RELATED TO PREFERENCES AND ALLOCATION, DRAWING ON RICH LONGITUDINAL ASSESSMENT-LEVEL DATA FROM THE MINIMUM DATA SET, MEDICARE ENROLLMENT RECORDS, NURSING HOME COMPARE RATINGS, AND OTHER FACILITY-LEVEL SOURCES. THE RESEARCHERS FIRST CONSTRUCT A NEW UNIDIMENSIONAL INDEX OF PATIENT HEALTH STATUS USING MACHINE LEARNING METHODS, PREDICTING SHORT-TERM MORTALITY CONDITIONAL ON RICH CLINICAL ASSESSMENTS. THEY THEN ESTIMATE FACILITY-LEVEL QUALITY AS THE CAUSAL EFFECT OF A STAY IN A PARTICULAR FACILITY ON A PATIENT?S HEALTH TRAJECTORY, USING A MODEL OF HEALTH EVOLUTION AND A CONTROL-FUNCTION APPROACH TO ADDRESS SELECTION. BUILDING ON THESE ESTIMATES, THE PROJECT DEVELOPS A PRODUCTION FUNCTION THAT QUANTIFIES HOW FACILITIES TRANSFORM STAFFING AND CAPITAL INTO QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF CARE, AND ESTIMATES FACILITY-SPECIFIC PREFERENCES OVER THESE OUTPUTS. THE RESEARCH ALSO EXAMINES THE ROLE OF REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS, SUCH AS CERTIFICATE-OF-NEED LAWS, IN LIMITING CAPACITY AND HINDERING PATIENT REALLOCATION TO HIGHER-QUALITY PROVIDERS. NEXT, THE RESEARCHERS USE MACHINE LEARNING TOOLS TO BUILD A NEW DATASET CONTAINING FLAGS FOR NURSING HOME OWNERSHIP, IN ORDER TO PROVIDE NEW EVIDENCE ON HOW OWNERSHIP INFLUENCES PRODUCTIVITY AND PREFERENCES. FINALLY, THE INVESTIGATORS EXTEND THE FRAMEWORK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MULTIPRODUCT NATURE OF SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES, WHICH DELIVER BOTH POST-ACUTE CARE, TYPICALLY TO MEDICARE PATIENTS, AND LONG-TERM CARE, TYPICALLY TO MEDICAID PATIENTS. THE ANALYSIS YIELDS NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE DETERMINANTS OF CARE QUALITY, THE ECONOMIC TRADEOFFS INHERENT IN MULTIPRODUCT PROVISION, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR REGULATORY OR MARKET-BASED INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE PATIENT OUTCOMES BY INFLUENCING MARKET CAPACITY AND OWNERSHIP. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

CAREER: NETWORKS FOR RISK SHARING, INFORMATION DIFFUSION, AND ON-THE-JOB SUPPORT

RAPID: SEAN COVID-19 SURVEY ARCHIVE

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INVESTMENTS IN R&D AND SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING WORKERS

THE CUTTER INCIDENT: CONSEQUENCES OF A PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS

CAREER: FROM ASSIGNMENT TO EVALUATION: THE DESIGN OF SCHOOL CHOICE SYSTEMS

CAREER: NETWORKS IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM -FIRMS, INDUSTRIES, AND COUNTRIES FORM AN INTERCONNECTED NETWORK THROUGH PRODUCTION, TRADE, AND TECHNOLOGICAL LINKAGES. ANY CHANGES IN THE LOCAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE RIPPLE EFFECTS THROUGHOUT THE NETWORK, GENERATING DISTRIBUTIONAL AND AGGREGATE CONSEQUENCES. THIS CAREER AWARD FUNDS RESEARCH THAT ADOPTS THIS NETWORK-BASED VIEW TO DEEPEN OUR UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, CAPITAL FLOW, AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN AN INTERDEPENDENT WORLD. THE FIRST PROJECT ANALYZES THE NETWORK OF GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS AND STUDIES THE IMPLICATION OF CAPITAL ACCOUNT OPENNESS ON GROWTH AND INTERNATIONAL CONVERGENCE. THE SECOND PROJECT COLLECTS NEW, COMPREHENSIVE DATA ON INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES ACROSS COUNTRIES AND ANALYZES THE EVOLUTION OF PRODUCTION NETWORKS AS ECONOMIES GROW. THE THIRD PROJECT STUDIES THE INCENTIVES AND IMPLICATIONS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY WHEN REGIONS ENGAGE IN ECONOMIC COMPETITION. THE FOURTH PROJECT BUILDS A MODEL OF GLOBAL INNOVATION SPILLOVERS AND ANALYZES COUNTRIES' STRATEGIC INCENTIVES TO CONDUCT INNOVATION POLICY IN AN INTERDEPENDENT WORLD. THIS RESEARCH DEVELOPS AND APPLIES NETWORK MODELS TO ANSWER GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, POLICY-RELEVANT QUESTIONS SURROUNDING INDUSTRIAL POLICY, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, INNOVATION, AND GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS. THE FIRST PROJECT DEVELOPS A NEW GROWTH MODEL OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY FEATURING FRICTIONAL AND IMPERFECTLY SUBSTITUTABLE FLOWS OF GOODS AND CAPITAL BETWEEN COUNTRIES. THE MODEL IS SUITABLE FOR STUDYING THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD TO CHANGES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT FRICTIONS. THE SECOND PROJECT DEVELOPS A PRODUCTION NETWORK MODEL WITH A CONTINUUM OF SECTORS. THE ADVANTAGE OF WORKING WITH A CONTINUUM IS THAT REAL-WORLD INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES, WHICH COME WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF AGGREGATIONS, CAN BE SEEN AS DISCRETIZATION OF THE CONTINUUM, THEREBY MAKING THESE TABLES FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIES OR TIME PERIODS DIRECTLY COMPARABLE. THE PROJECT APPLIES THE MODEL TO NEWLY COLLECTED, COMPREHENSIVE PANEL DATA ON INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES AND ANALYZES THE EVOLUTION OF PRODUCTION NETWORKS ACROSS STAGES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. THE THIRD PROJECT STUDIES THE STRATEGIC INCENTIVES FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO IMPLEMENT INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN A SETTING WHERE REGIONS ARE CONNECTED THROUGH INPUT-OUTPUT AND TRADE LINKAGES AND THUS LOCAL INDUSTRIAL POLICY HAS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM IMPACT ON OTHER REGIONS. SUFFICIENT STATISTICS THAT CAPTURE THE LOCAL AND CROSS-REGION SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICIES SHOW THAT DECENTRALIZED INTERVENTIONS CAN BACKFIRE IF A LOCAL GOVERNMENT'S POLICY OBJECTIVES DIFFER FROM THE CENTRAL PLANNER'S. THE PROJECT APPLIES THE MODEL TO STUDY DECENTRALIZED INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND STATE INTERVENTIONS IN CHINA. THE FOURTH PROJECT DEVELOPS A MULTI-COUNTRY, MULTI-SECTOR ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS ACROSS COUNTRIES AND SECTORS. THE PROJECT ANALYZES THE DYNAMIC AND GLOBAL IMPLICATION OF AN ECONOMY?S INNOVATION POLICY TARGETING BOTH THE DOMESTIC ALLOCATION OF R&D RESOURCES AND THE BARRIERS TO KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION ACROSS BORDERS. THE MODEL PROVIDES A QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORK TO ANALYZE QUESTIONS IN GLOBAL INNOVATION POLICY, TECHNOLOGICAL COMPETITION, AND PROTECTIONISM RELATING TO INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

CAREER: MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF MICROECONOMIC HETEROGENEITY

SCHOOL CHOICE MECHANISMS

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES AND DETERMINANTS OF TRADE PROTECTION? -THIS RESEARCH EXAMINES TWO QUESTIONS THAT ARE AT THE HEART OF THE STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS: FIRST, WHAT EFFECTS DO TRADE POLICIES (SUCH AS IMPORT TARIFFS) HAVE ON ECONOMIC OUTCOMES SUCH AS IMPORTS, EXPORTS, AND TARIFF REVENUE? AND SECOND, WHICH GROUPS OF SOCIETY ARE RELATIVELY FAVORED BY THE TRADE POLICY THAT IS IN PLACE AT ANY GIVEN TIME? ECONOMISTS USE ELABORATE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS TO ANSWER THE FIRST OF THESE QUESTIONS, BOTH IN ORDER TO EVALUATE POLICY CHANGES THAT HAVE ALREADY HAPPENED AND TO PREDICT THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF POLICY PROPOSALS. THE RESEARCH IN THIS PROJECT DEVELOPS NEW STATISTICAL PROCEDURES THAT CAN BE USED TO ASSESS THE VALIDITY OF SUCH SIMULATIONS. PROVIDED SUCH SIMULATIONS PASS THESE VALIDITY TESTS, THEY CAN THEN BE USED TO QUANTIFY HOW IMPORTS AND EXPORTS IMPACT THE REAL INCOMES OF DIFFERENT GROUPS OF SOCIETY (BASED, FOR EXAMPLE, ON THEIR SECTOR OF EMPLOYMENT OR THEIR REGION OF RESIDENCE). THE PATTERNS OF SUCH ESTIMATED IMPACTS ARE THEN USED IN THE PROJECT TO UNDERSTAND THE EXTENT TO WHICH ANY GIVEN POLICY (SUCH AS THE ONE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR A GIVEN SETTING OF INTEREST) BENEFITS AND/OR HARMS DISTINCT GROUPS, WITHOUT THE NEED TO TAKE A STAND ON HOW THAT POLICY WAS ARRIVED AT OR WHAT STATED GOALS MAY HAVE BEEN BEHIND ITS ORIGINATION. THE FIRST COMPONENT OF THIS RESEARCH FOCUSES ON THE WELFARE CONSEQUENCES OF TRADE PROTECTION. HISTORICALLY ESTIMATES OF SUCH IMPACTS HAVE RELIED ON THE COUNTERFACTUAL SIMULATIONS OF QUANTITATIVE TRADE MODELS. TO HELP ASSESS AND POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN THE CREDIBILITY OF THE PREDICTIONS OF QUANTITATIVE TRADE MODELS, THIS RESEARCH DEVELOPS A NEW TESTING PROCEDURE THAT IS INTUITIVE, EASY TO IMPLEMENT, AND CONSISTENT WITH STANDARD PRACTICES IN THE FIELD. THIS PROCEDURE IS THEN APPLIED TO THE DRAMATIC TARIFF CHANGES THAT TOOK PLACE AMONG THE UNITED STATES AND CERTAIN TRADING PARTNERS IN 2018. THE SECOND COMPONENT FOCUSES ON THE POLITICAL-ECONOMY DETERMINANTS OF TRADE PROTECTION. THE STARTING POINT IS A NEW AND GENERAL OPTIMAL TARIFF FORMULA THAT RELIES ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT TRADE TAXES ARE CONSTRAINED PARETO EFFICIENT, BUT OTHERWISE DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY RESTRICTION ON PREFERENCES, TECHNOLOGY, MARKET STRUCTURE OR THE SPECIFICS OF THE POLITICAL PROCESS. THIS FORMULA HIGHLIGHTS HOW OPTIMAL TARIFFS VARY WITH THE PARETO WEIGHTS OF DIFFERENT CONSTITUENTS OF SOCIETY -- WHICH REFLECTS THE POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF TRADE PROTECTION -- AS WELL AS HOW MARGINAL CHANGES IN IMPORTS AFFECT THEIR REAL EARNINGS -- WHICH REFLECTS THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF TRADE PROTECTION. EMPIRICALLY, THE RESEARCH BEGINS BY ESTIMATING THESE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS (IN THE SAME 2018 CONTEXT AS FOR THE FIRST COMPONENT) AND THEN COMBINES THEM WITH THE NEW FORMULA FOR OPTIMAL TARIFFS IN ORDER TO ESTIMATE WHAT PARETO WEIGHTS MUST BE GIVEN THE OBSERVED CROSS-SECTIONAL VARIATION IN TRADE POLICY. ARMED WITH SUCH NON-PARAMETRIC ESTIMATES OF POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF PROTECTION, A FINAL STEP OF THE RESEARCH SEEKS TO QUANTIFY THE EXTENT TO WHICH THEY CAN BE ACCOUNTED FOR BY LEADING POLITICAL-ECONOMY MODELS OF TRADE POLICY. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

REGULATING UNTAXABLE EXTERNALITIES: ARE VEHICLE AIR POLLUTION STANDARDS EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT?

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT IN SHAPING PRODUCTIVITY AND WORKER INCOME

CAREER: LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN POOR COUNTRIES

NBER SUMMER INSTITUTE, 2019-2021

CAREER: FRICTIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, CRISES AND POLICIES -FINANCIAL MARKETS INSTITUTIONS ARE KEY DETERMINANTS OF THE ALLOCATION OF RISK AND CAPITAL, BOTH WITHIN AND ACROSS COUNTRIES. THIS PROJECT CONSISTS OF THREE MAIN RESEARCH QUESTIONS THAT EXPLORE THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF FINANCIAL MARKET IMPERFECTIONS AND THE ROLE OF POLICY IN IMPROVING THESE OUTCOMES. THE FIRST AREA FOCUSES ON UNDERSTANDING WHY FIRMS LINKED IN A PRODUCTION NETWORK TEND TO BORROW AND LEND TO EACH OTHER, AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF THESE INTER-FIRMS FINANCIAL RELATIONS FOR MACROECONOMIC STABILITY. THE SECOND AREA EXAMINES OPTIMALITY CRITERIA FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF THE BALANCE SHEET OF A MONETARY AUTHORITY, IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RECENT WAVES OF ASSET PURCHASES PURSUED BY CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD. THE THIRD AREA STUDIES THE REASONS WHY, OVER THE PAST DECADE, KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS HAVE SIGNALED AN INCREASE IN BARRIERS TO CAPITAL MOBILITY ACROSS COUNTRIES. THE EDUCATIONAL COMPONENT OF THE PROJECT CONVENES A WORKSHOP WITH GRADUATE STUDENTS TO TEACH FRONTIER METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF FRICTIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN OPEN AND CLOSED ECONOMIES. THE FINDINGS FROM THESE RESEARCH PROJECTS WILL HAVE BROAD IMPLICATIONS FOR US MACROECONOMIC POLICY. THIS RESEARCH FOCUSES ON THREE AREAS. THE FIRST AREA STUDIES THE MACROECONOMICS IMPLICATIONS OF TRADE CREDIT RELATIONSHIPS. IN MOST COUNTRIES, TRANSACTIONS BETWEEN FIRMS IN A PRODUCTION NETWORK TYPICALLY INVOLVE THE ISSUANCE OF AN IOU RATHER THAN A SPOT PAYMENT. THESE TRADE-CREDIT BILLS ARE A KEY INSTRUMENTS FOR LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT, AND CHANGES IN THEIR AVAILABILITY OR TERMS HAVE MAJOR EFFECTS ON FIRMS? PERFORMANCE. THE FIRST PROJECT IN THIS AREA DEVELOPS A MACROECONOMIC MODEL OF TRADE CREDIT RELATIONSHIPS AND USES THE FRAMEWORK TO MEASURE HOW THESE LINKS AFFECT THE PROPAGATION OF FINANCIAL SHOCKS. THE SECOND PROJECT EXPLORES THE ROLE OF SELF-FULFILLING EXPECTATIONS IN EXPLAINING SUDDEN FREEZES OF THE INTER-FIRMS NETWORK OF PAYMENTS. THE SECOND AREA FOCUSES ON POSITIVE AND NORMATIVE ASPECTS OF ``UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES CARRIED OUT BY SEVERAL COUNTRIES AFTER 2008. THE FIRST PROJECT IN THIS AREA DEVELOPS OPTIMALITY CRITERIA FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF FOREIGN RESERVES BY A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY, WHILE THE SECOND PROJECT FOCUSES ON THE MANAGEMENT OF THE BALANCE SHEET FOR A CENTRAL BANK THAT ENGAGES IN QUANTITATIVE EASING. THE THIRD AREA AIMS AT UNDERSTANDING THE DEVIATIONS FROM COVERED INTEREST PARITY WE HAVE OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL CURRENCIES AFTER 2008. THIS RESEARCH SHOWS THAT A SIZABLE COMPONENT OF THE OBSERVED DEVIATIONS FROM COVERED INTEREST PARITY IS DUE TO THE WIDENING OF THE BID-ASK SPREADS DEMANDED BY DEALERS IN CURRENCY MARKETS RATHER THAN AN ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY, AND IT PROPOSES A MODEL TO INTERPRET THIS FINDING. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

PERCEIVED CAUSES AND CLARITY OF FINANCIAL MARKET JUMPS

CAREER: UNITY IN DIVERSITY? MIGRATION, CULTURE AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

A MULTI-COUNTRY DATABASE OF INCOME DYNAMICS AND INEQUALITY -THIS AWARDS FUNDS THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN OPEN ACCESS DATABASE THAT WILL INCLUDE INFORMATION ON EARNINGS INEQUALITY, INCOME VOLATILITY, ECONOMIC MOBILITY, AND INCOME DYNAMICS FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF COUNTRIES OVER TIME. THE DATA FACILITY PROVIDES RICH INFORMATION ON INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL EARNINGS OVER TIME FROM GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS. THE DATA ARE HARMONIZED TO ALLOW FOR COMPARISONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES AND OVER TIME. THE GOAL IS TO SPUR RESEARCH ON THE FACTORS DETERMINING INEQUALITY, ECONOMIC MOBILITY AND ECONOMIC RISK ALONG WITH RESEARCH TESTING THEORIES ABOUT THE REASONS FOR DIFFERENT LEVELS AND PATHS IN THE EVOLUTION OF EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION ACROSS COUNTRIES. MEASURING PATTERNS OF INCOME INEQUALITY OVER TIME, BETWEEN GROUPS, AND ACROSS COUNTRIES REQUIRES RELIABLE MICRODATA ON INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS. THE DATABASE FUNDED BY THIS AWARD HAS SEVERAL DISTINGUISHING FEATURES. THE FIRST IS THE LONGITUDINAL DIMENSION. BY PROVIDING DATA ON EACH COUNTRY OVER TIME RESEARCHERS WILL BE ABLE TO STUDY THE DYNAMICS OF INDIVIDUAL AND HOUSEHOLD EARNINGS. THIS INCLUDES WORK ON EARNINGS VOLATILITY, THE SIZE, PERSISTENCE, AND ORIGINAL OF INDIVIDUAL INCOME SHOCKS, AND INCOME MOBILITY WITHIN AGE COHORTS AND ACROSS GENERATIONS. THE SECOND DISTINGUISHING FEATURE IS THE ADMINISTRATIVE NATURE OF THE DATA. THE SIZE OF EACH NATIONAL DATA SET ALLOWS GRANULAR ANALYSES OF THE HETEROGENEITY BEHIND THE PHENOMENA OF INTEREST, INCLUDING A WIDE RANGE OF INDIVIDUAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

THE TRANSMISSION FROM HOUSEHOLDS TO THE REAL ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM MORTGAGE AND CONSUMER CREDIT MARKETS

SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND NORM CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS -THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL USE LARGE-SCALE LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS TO INVESTIGATE NORM CHANGE AND PROVIDE AN EMPIRICALLY VALIDATED FRAMEWORK TO ANALYZE SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS. THE AUTHORS WILL STUDY SITUATIONS WHERE NORMS, OR A LACK THEREOF, DAMAGE A SOCIETY?S WELFARE: DISCRIMINATORY NORMS, NORMS THAT CURTAIL FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, NORMS THAT SUPPORT UNHEALTHY BEHAVIORS (E.G., SMOKING OR DRINKING), OR THE ABSENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL NORMS. UNDERSTANDING HOW NORM CHANGE CAN OCCUR SPONTANEOUSLY AND HOW POLICY CAN HELP SUCH PROCESSES IS ESSENTIAL FOR ADDRESSING GLOBAL CHALLENGES SUCH AS ECONOMIC INEQUALITY, GLOBAL WARMING, OR PUBLIC HEALTH ISSUES. THE SOCIAL TIPPING FRAMEWORK DEVELOPED AND TESTED IN THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL PROVIDE AN INEXPENSIVE WAY TO EVALUATE POLICY INTERVENTIONS THAT AIM TO ALTER SOCIAL NORMS, SUCH AS TAXING HARMFUL PRACTICES, DISPENSING INFORMATION, AND INCENTIVIZING AGENTS OF CHANGE WHO HOLD PROMINENT SOCIAL POSITIONS AND CAN SPREAD POSITIVE CHANGE. ANOTHER AIM OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT WILL BE TO IMPROVE HOW SOCIAL SCIENTISTS AND LARGE SURVEY COMPANIES CONDUCT SURVEYS ON SOCIOECONOMIC ISSUES. TRADITIONAL SURVEYS ASK FOR A PERSON'S OPINION ON A TOPIC, BUT RESPONSES MAY NOT BE TRUTHFUL. TRADITIONAL SURVEYS ALSO ASK STATIC QUESTIONS THAT ARE UNINFORMATIVE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT NORM CHANGE CAN OCCUR. THIS PROJECT WILL DEVELOP A NEW METHOD TO DESIGN SURVEYS WITH DYNAMIC AND INCENTIVIZED QUESTIONS, ALLOWING RESEARCHERS TO UNDERSTAND THE POTENTIAL FOR NORM CHANGE ACROSS DIFFERENT SOCIAL ISSUES. THE PROJECT?S RESULTS WILL BE SOCIALLY AND ECONOMICALLY BENEFICIAL BECAUSE THEY CAN CONTRIBUTE TO A BETTER ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES. THE AUTHORS WILL EMPIRICALLY VALIDATE A THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL FRAMEWORK TO ADVANCE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND NORM CHANGE. THE FRAMEWORK COMBINES A THEORY OF TIPPING POINTS, LARGE-SCALE LAB EXPERIMENTS, AND INCENTIVIZED REPRESENTATIVE SURVEYS. THE MAIN OBJECTIVE WILL BE TO ORGANIZE SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING NORM CHANGE IN A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK. THIS FRAMEWORK WILL ENABLE RESEARCHERS TO STUDY SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND NORM CHANGE DEPENDING ON A SOCIETY?S STRUCTURE, E.G., PEOPLE?S TOLERANCE TOWARD NORM DEVIATIONS, DIVERSITY, SOCIAL NETWORKS, SOCIAL FRAGMENTATION, INFORMATION AND FILTER BUBBLES, POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS, INDIVIDUAL BELIEFS, RISK AND FAIRNESS PREFERENCES, AND BEHAVIORAL BIASES SUCH AS THE SUNK COST FALLACY. THE FRAMEWORK WILL SERVE AS A TOOL TO EVALUATE POLICY INTERVENTIONS, HELPING TO ANSWER QUESTIONS LIKE, ?WHICH INTERVENTIONS CAN RAISE PEOPLE?S WILLINGNESS TO GET VACCINATED?? AND ?ARE MORE DIVERSE SOCIETIES MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE POSITIVE NORM CHANGE?? THE AUTHORS WILL FURTHER LEVERAGE THE SOCIAL TIPPING FRAMEWORK TO DESIGN A NEW TYPE OF REPRESENTATIVE SURVEY TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT A PARTICULAR SOCIETY, E.G., CALIFORNIANS, TEXANS, RACIAL GROUPS, OR RELIGIOUS GROUPS, IS RIPE FOR CHANGE FOR DIFFERENT SOCIAL ISSUES SUCH AS AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, IMMIGRATION, OR CLIMATE CHANGE. A CRUCIAL METHODOLOGICAL CONTRIBUTION OF THESE SURVEYS WILL BE TO ALLOW RESEARCHERS TO DETECT THE POTENTIAL FOR NORM CHANGE RATHER THAN FOCUSING ON STATIC SOCIETAL BELIEFS AND EXPECTATIONS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION RESEARCH

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: OWNERSHIP AND TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: EVIDENCE FROM THE CENSUS OF MANUFACTURES -PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IS A FUNDAMENTAL DRIVER OF INCREASED LIVING STANDARDS, AND THIS PROJECT EXPLORES SOURCES OF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AS THE UNITED STATES ROSE TO GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROMINENCE. THE RESEARCHERS SEEKS TO UNDERSTAND FIRMS? TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION DECISIONS DURING A PAST PERIOD OF RAPID TECHNICAL CHANGE. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF CURRENT POLICY DISCUSSION SURROUNDING TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION, BOTH IN THE UNITED STATES AND WORLDWIDE. THE RAPID PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE NATURALLY RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW FIRMS ARE ABLE TO ADAPT TO CHANGING ENVIRONMENTS. THE HISTORICAL EXPERIENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY INFORM OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE UNDERLYING SOURCES OF SUSTAINED LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH, WHICH PROVIDES AN HISTORICAL BENCHMARK FOR COMPARISON AND CONTRAST WITH THE MODERN ERA. THE RESEARCHERS? PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES HIGHLIGHT THE IMPORTANCE OF OWNERSHIP FOR FIRM BEHAVIOR AND OUTCOMES. IN MILLING, CHANGES IN OWNERSHIP ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF FIRMS UPGRADING FROM WATER POWER TO STEAM POWER. ACROSS ALL OF MANUFACTURING, FEMALE OWNERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OWN SMALLER ESTABLISHMENTS, BUT EMPLOY MORE WOMEN (AND PAY THEM MORE). THE IMPORTANCE OF OWNERSHIP HIGHLIGHTS HOW UNEQUAL ACCESS TO FUNDS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES CAN BE A DRIVER OF INEQUALITY. THE RESEARCHERS ALSO EXPLORE HOW ACCESS TO MARKETS AFFECTED FIRM DYNAMICS, AS AN EXPANDING RAILROAD NETWORK INCREASED MARKET INTEGRATION. THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROJECT IS TO COMPILE A NEW OPEN-ACCESS PANEL DATABASE OF US MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS FROM EXISTING CENSUS ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS. THE RESEARCHERS HAVE TRAINED A TEAM TO DIGITIZE IMAGES OF THE HANDWRITTEN CENSUS MANUSCRIPT PAGES AND MAKE PANEL LINKS FROM ONE DECADE TO THE NEXT. THROUGH THIS PROJECT, THE RESEARCH TEAM WILL COMPLETE THESE PANEL LINKS, ACROSS ALL INDUSTRIES, AND MAKE THE DATABASE EASILY ACCESSIBLE AND FREELY AVAILABLE. THE US CENSUS OF MANUFACTURES IS AN ESTABLISHMENT-LEVEL GOVERNMENT CENSUS OF ALL MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS ABOVE A MINIMAL SIZE. THE CENSUS OF MANUFACTURES WAS PROFESSIONALIZED AND COMPREHENSIVE BEGINNING IN 1850, AND CENSUS ENUMERATION WAS DONE IN-PERSON BY US MARSHALS. BY MAKING AVAILABLE NEW DATA ON EVERY MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENT, LINKED OVER TIME, THIS PROJECT ENABLES FURTHER RESEARCH INTO THE HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. THIS DATABASE ALLOWS RESEARCHERS AND POLICYMAKERS TO UNDERSTAND BETTER THE UNDERLYING DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND IMPROVEMENTS IN LIVING STANDARDS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

NEW SURVEY OF FIRMS' EXPECTATIONS

THE CARBON FOOTPRINT OF MULTINATIONAL PRODUCTION -WHERE COMPANIES CHOOSE TO PRODUCE GOODS AROUND THE WORLD AFFECTS THE CLIMATE IMPACTS OF PRODUCTION SINCE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES HAVE DIFFERENT PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES THAT IMPACT THE AMOUNT POLLUTION EMITTED DURING PRODUCTION. THIS INNOVATIVE RESEARCH WILL USE FOUR PROJECTS TO STUDY HOW THE ACTIVITY OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS THAT PRODUCE ACROSS DIFFERENT COUNTRIES, (MULTINATIONAL PRODUCTION (MP) FOR SHORT), AFFECTS GLOBAL CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) EMISSIONS. THE RESEARCH DEVELOPS NEW THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL METHODS TO STUDY INTERACTIONS OF MP AND THE ENVIRONMENT. THE PROJECT ALSO INVESTIGATES THE IMPORTANCE OF INSTITUTIONS IN DRIVING OBSERVED GLOBAL PATTERNS OF EMISSIONS AND HOW ACCOUNTING FOR MP CHANGES HOW RESEARCHERS STUDY INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE POLICY. IN ADDITION TO THEORETICAL MODELLING, THE PROJECT ALSO INVOLVES ASSEMBLING A LARGE DATA SET ON MP, FIRM OWNERSHIP, AND CO2 EMISSIONS THAT WILL BE USED BY OTHER RESEARCHERS. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH WILL HELP GUIDE AND IMPROVE GLOBAL CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS THAT HAVE SET GOALS OF RESOURCE TRANSFERS FROM RICH TO POOR COUNTRIES TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE. THE RESULTS WILL NOT ONLY GUIDE POLICIES TO HELP IMPROVE THE HEALTH OF CITIZENS ACROSS THE GLOBE BUT ALSO HELP TO ESTABLISH THE US AS THE GLOBAL LEADER IN CLIMATE POLICY RESEARCH. IN ADDITION, THE PROJECT WILL DEVELOP TEACHING MATERIALS AND MENTOR AND TRAIN GRADUATE STUDENTS, UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS, AND JUNIOR FACULTY, IN MP, TRADE, AND CO2 EMISSIONS. THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL STUDY HOW MULTINATIONAL PRODUCTION (MP) ACTIVITIES OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS AFFECT AGGREGATE GLOBAL CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) EMISSIONS. THE RESEARCH CONSISTS OF FOUR PARTS. THE FIRST PROJECT USES MICRODATA ON GLOBAL FIRMS TO ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MP AND CO2 EMISSIONS. THE DATA FOR THIS PART IS BUILT FROM ORBIS AND MERGED WITH FIRM OWNERSHIP DATA. THIS PROJECT WILL ALSO USE AGGREGATE DATA TO STUDY HOW HOST COUNTRIES (COUNTRIES WHERE PRODUCTION TAKES PLACE) DIFFER IN THEIR CO2 EMISSIONS AS WELL AS HOW A FIRM?S HOME COUNTRY AFFECTS ITS CO2 EMISSIONS. THE SECOND PROJECT WILL DEVELOP A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MULTI-COUNTRY MODEL OF MP, TRADE, AND CLIMATE CHANGE THAT INTRODUCES REALISTIC FEATURES TO STANDARD MP ANALYSIS, SUCH AS TRADABLE ENERGY GOODS AND ENERGY RESOURCES, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY BLUEPRINTS, AND A SPATIAL SEPARATION OF MP, PRODUCTION, AND SALES. THE THIRD PROJECT WILL ESTIMATE PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL USING THE LARGE MICRO-LEVEL DATA SET CONSTRUCTED IN THE FIRST PROJECT. THE FINAL PROJECT WILL USE THE ESTIMATED MODEL TO STUDY HOW MP AND POLICY CHANGES AFFECT GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL PROVIDE MAJOR INPUTS INTO POLICIES TO INCREASE THE ADOPTION OF ?GREEN TECHNOLOGY? IN PRODUCTION AND REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS, AND THUS IMPROVE CITIZENS? HEALTH. THE RESULTS WILL NOT ONLY GUIDE POLICIES TO HELP IMPROVE THE HEALTH OF CITIZENS ACROSS THE GLOBE BUT ALSO HELP TO ESTABLISH THE US AS THE GLOBAL LEADER IN CLIMATE POLICY RESEARCH. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

CAREER DYNAMICS: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF US FIRMS AND HOUSEHOLDS

EXTREME EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON SOCIAL LEARNING: AN INVESTIGATION OF ENDOGENOUSLY LIMITED COMMUNICATION, SKEPTICISM, AND BIASED BELIEFS

CAREER: FAMILY BEHAVIOR, HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES, AND GOVERNMENT POLICY: RESEARCH AND TRAINING -ASSISTED REPRODUCTIVE TECHNOLOGIES (ARTS) ARE TRANSFORMING COUPLES? ABILITY TO CONCEIVE, AND PRENATAL SCREENING TECHNOLOGIES ALLOW PARENTS TO GAIN PRECISE INFORMATION ABOUT FETAL HEALTH DURING PREGNANCY. THESE TECHNOLOGIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FUNDAMENTALLY ALTER FAMILY STRUCTURE AND FAMILY WELLBEING. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THESE TECHNOLOGIES ARE EXPENSIVE, THEIR ARRIVAL MAY INTRODUCE NEW HEALTH INEQUITIES, WHICH UNDERSCORES THE ROLE OF PUBLIC POLICIES THAT REGULATE THEIR ACCESSIBILITY AND AFFORDABILITY. UNDERSTANDING THE CONSEQUENCES OF ARTS AND PRENATAL SCREENING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FAMILY DECISIONS, FAMILY OUTCOMES, AND INEQUALITY IS ESSENTIAL FOR INFORMING PUBLIC FERTILITY-RELATED POLICIES, AND THEREBY ADVANCING NATIONAL HEALTH, PROSPERITY, AND WELFARE. THIS CAREER RESEARCH PROGRAM COMBINES POPULATION-WIDE ADMINISTRATIVE DATA, WITH UNIQUELY DETAILED INFORMATION ON INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL USE OF THESE TECHNOLOGIES, AND EXPERIMENTAL AND THEORETICAL RESEARCH METHODS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THEIR EFFECTS ON FAMILIES. THE RESEARCH PROJECT WILL STUDY HOW ARTS AND PRENATAL SCREENING TECHNOLOGIES AFFECT FAMILY REPRODUCTIVE DECISIONS, AS WELL AS WHETHER THESE TECHNOLOGIES AFFECT INEQUALITIES ACROSS FAMILIES. THIS PROPOSAL'S EDUCATION PLAN FOCUSES ON TRAINING STUDENTS IN HOW TO ACCESS AND USE BIG ADMINISTRATIVE DATA FOR RESEARCH ? KNOWLEDGE THAT IS OFTEN PASSED THROUGH PERSONAL CONNECTIONS ? TO HELP LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD IN THE PROFESSION FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF RESEARCHERS. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL HAVE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON THE CONDUCT OF PUBLIC FERTILITY POLICY, AND HEALTH CARE POLICY GENERALLY. THE RESULTS COULD HELP IMPROVE THE HEALTH OF AMERICANS AS WELL AS HELP ESTABLISH THE US A GLOBAL LEADER IN REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH CARE POLICY. THIS CAREER RESEARCH PROJECT HAS FOUR COMPONENTS. THE FIRST PROJECT IS MOTIVATED BY SHARP DIFFERENCES IN UTILIZATION OF ASSISTED REPRODUCTIVE TECHNOLOGIES (ARTS) ACROSS SOCIOECONOMIC GROUPS. IT EXPLOITS AGE THRESHOLDS IN PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE OF ARTS TO INVESTIGATE THE ROLE OF AFFORDABILITY IN DRIVING THIS INEQUALITY; FURTHER, IT EXAMINES THE LONG-RUN CONSEQUENCES OF ARTS UPTAKE ON THE HEALTH AND WELL-BEING OF WOMEN WHO USE THEM AND THEIR FAMILIES. THE SECOND PROJECT WILL STUDY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW AND SUPERIOR ? BUT EXPENSIVE ? SCREENING TECHNOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING CHROMOSOMAL ABNORMALITIES. IT WILL COMBINE REDUCED-FORM EVIDENCE LEVERAGING INSURANCE ELIGIBILITY THRESHOLDS WITH A THEORETICAL MODEL OF PARENTS? PRENATAL TESTING DECISIONS TO EXAMINE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE SUPERIOR TECHNOLOGY ON PARENTS? TESTING CHOICES, BIRTH OUTCOMES, AND MEASURES OF AGGREGATE POPULATION HEALTH. THE THIRD PROJECT FOCUSES ON A PARTICULAR TYPE OF ARTS, IN VITRO FERTILIZATION (IVF). THE PROJECT IS BASED ON THE OBSERVATION THAT IVF WITH DONATED GAMETES (SPERM AND OOCYTES) DECOUPLES A BABY?S ENVIRONMENT IN UTERO FROM THE BABY?S GENETIC MATERIAL. USING DATA CONTAINING INFORMATION ABOUT IVF CHILDREN BORN WITH DONATED GAMETES, THIS PROJECT WILL BRING NOVEL EVIDENCE TO THE DEBATE ON THE IMPORTANCE OF ?NATURE? VERSUS ?NURTURE? IN THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN PARENTS? SOCIOECONOMIC STANDING AND CHILDREN?S HEALTH. THE FOURTH COMPONENT IS A MENTORING WORKSHOP THAT AIMS TO REDUCE INEQUALITY AMONG STUDENTS IN ACCESS TO INFORMATION ABOUT THE USE OF LARGE-SCALE ADMINISTRATIVE DATA IN RESEARCH. THE RESULTS COULD HELP IMPROVE THE HEALTH OF AMERICANS AS WELL AS HELP ESTABLISH THE US A GLOBAL LEADER IN REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH CARE POLICY. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

CAREER: NEW DYNAMIC PUBLIC FINANCE -- FROM THEORY TO POLICY

COLLEGES AND UPWARD MOBILITY IN THE US OVER THE LAST CENTURY -ACCESS TO COLLEGE EDUCATION IS WIDELY REGARDED AS AN IMPORTANT PATH TO ECONOMIC MOBILITY. HOWEVER, TO THE EXTENT THAT CHILDREN FROM RICHER FAMILIES ATTEND MORE HIGHLY RANKED COLLEGES THAN CHILDREN FROM POORER FAMILIES, HIGHER EDUCATION MIGHT ACTUALLY AMPLIFY THE PERSISTENCE OF ECONOMIC STATUS ACROSS GENERATIONS RATHER THAN ?LEVELING THE PLAYING FIELD?. THIS PROJECT WILL BRING NEW DATA AND A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE TO THE STUDY OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND INEQUALITY AND INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN THE US. TO DO SO, THE INVESTIGATORS WILL CONSTRUCT A LARGE DATASET WITH INFORMATION ON THE SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUNDS AND POST-COLLEGE OUTCOMES OF US COLLEGE STUDENTS OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS. TO COLLECT THESE DATA, THE INVESTIGATORS WILL FIRST DIGITIZE THE ROSTERS OF STUDENTS ATTENDING DIFFERENT US COLLEGES FROM THE EARLY 1900S AND UNTIL THE 1950S. IN A SECOND STEP, THEY WILL LINK THESE STUDENTS TO US POPULATION CENSUSES, ENABLING THEM TO OBSERVE STUDENTS? CHILDHOOD CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR OWN ADULT OUTCOMES (SUCH AS INCOME). THE RESEARCHERS WILL USE THIS DATASET TO INVESTIGATE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS RELATED TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE US, FOR INSTANCE: (1) TO WHAT EXTENT HAS ACCESS TO ?ELITE? COLLEGES INCREASED OVER THE LAST CENTURY FOR STUDENTS FROM POORER SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUNDS?, (2) WHICH COLLEGES HAVE BEEN THE MOST EFFECTIVE AT IMPROVING THE LABOR MARKET PROSPECTS OF THEIR STUDENTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM POORER FAMILIES? (3) WHAT HAVE BEEN THE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN COLLEGES? ADMISSION PRACTICES (FOR INSTANCE, THE INTRODUCTION OF STANDARDIZED TESTING) ON THE SOCIOECONOMIC COMPOSITION OF THE STUDENTS THAT THEY ENROLL? THIS NEW DATASET, WHICH THE INVESTIGATORS WILL MAKE PUBLICLY AVAILABLE, WILL ALSO OFFER MANY EXCITING RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES FOR OTHER SCHOLARS. MOREOVER, BY IDENTIFYING COLLEGES IN WHICH STUDENTS HAVE BETTER OUTCOMES TODAY THAN IN THE PAST, THIS DATASET WILL ALSO HELP IDENTIFY THE INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IMPROVEMENTS. THIS PROJECT WILL BRING NEW DATA AND A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON THE ROLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN INEQUALITY AND INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN THE US. TO DO SO, THE INVESTIGATORS WILL CONSTRUCT A LARGE INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL DATASET OF STUDENTS WHO ATTENDED DIFFERENT US COLLEGES OVER THE COURSE OF THE 20TH CENTURY. THIS DATA COLLECTION WILL PROCEED IN TWO STEPS. IN A FIRST STEP, THEY WILL DIGITIZE HISTORICAL COLLEGE REGISTERS FOR STUDENTS ATTENDING DIFFERENT US COLLEGES FROM THE EARLY 1900S AND UNTIL THE 1950S. IN A SECOND STEP, THEY WILL LINK THESE STUDENTS TO US POPULATION CENSUSES, ENABLING THEM TO OBSERVE BOTH THEIR CHILDHOOD CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR OWN LONGER-TERM ADULT OUTCOMES (SUCH AS INCOME). LINKING THESE TWO SOURCES OF DATA IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE FACT THAT THE BOTH THE COLLEGE REGISTERS AND THE CENSUS INCLUDE IDENTIFYING INFORMATION SUCH AS STUDENTS? NAMES AND HOMETOWNS. BY COMBINING THESE DATA WITH SIMILARLY CONSTRUCTED DATA FOR STUDENTS ATTENDING COLLEGE IN MORE RECENT YEARS, THE INVESTIGATORS WILL BE ABLE TO CHARACTERIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUNDS AND POST-COLLEGE OUTCOMES OF US COLLEGE STUDENTS OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS. THE INVESTIGATORS WILL USE THESE DATA TO ADDRESS A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS RELATED TO ACCESS TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE US: (1) TO WHAT EXTENT HAS ACCESS TO ?ELITE? COLLEGES INCREASED OVER THE LAST CENTURY FOR STUDENTS FROM POORER SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUNDS? (2) WHAT HAS BEEN THE INFLUENCE OF CHANGES IN COLLEGES? ADMISSION PRACTICES (FOR INSTANCE, THE INTRODUCTION OF STANDARDIZED TESTING) ON THE SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUNDS OF THE STUDENTS THAT THEY ENROLL? (3) WHICH COLLEGES HAVE BEEN THE MOST EFFECTIVE AT IMPROVING THE LABOR MARKET PROSPECTS OF THEIR STUDENTS, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION? THIS NEW DATASET, WHICH THE INVESTIGATORS WILL MAKE PUBLICLY AVAILABLE, WILL OFFER MANY EXCITING RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCHOLARS IN FIELDS SUCH AS ECONOMICS, HISTORY, AND EDUCATION. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

MORTALITY EFFECTS OF HEALTH INSURANCE NETWORKS AND PROVIDERS

LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES OF STEM PHDS: MEASURING CAREER EARNINGS AND OCCUPATION TRAJECTORIES

IDEA AND ECONOMIC SPILLOVERS FROM PUBLICLY-FUNDED BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH

HETEROGENEITY, HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR, AND THE TRANSMISSION OF AGGREGATE SHOCKS

THE MEDIA AND THE STATE: HISTORICAL EVIDENCE FROM U.S. NEWSPAPERS

THE AGGREGATE IMPACT OF WORKING FROM HOME -WORK FROM HOME (WFH) HAS SURGED IN AMERICA, RISING FROM 5% OF WORKDAYS IN 2019, PEAKING AT ABOUT 60% IN MAY 2020 DURING THE LOCKDOWN, TO STABILIZE AT ABOUT 27% BY MAY 2023. THIS FIVE-FOLD INCREASE IN WORKING FROM HOME, INCLUDING BOTH FULL TIME REMOTE AND PART TIME TELEWORK, HAS BEEN POSSIBLY THE LARGEST CHANGE TO US LABOR MARKETS SINCE WORLD WAR II. THIS WFH SURGE HAS GENERATED MAJOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY QUESTIONS OVER THE IMPACT OF THIS ON MANY AREAS OF THE US ECONOMY. THIS PROJECT WILL INVESTIGATE THE IMPACT OF THIS WFH SURGE ON THE AGGREGATE US ECONOMY AND LABOR MARKET, ARISING FROM THE IMPACTS ON PRODUCTIVITY (WHICH COULD BE POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE), AND ON LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION. THESE QUESTIONS ARE IMPORTANT ACADEMICALLY, FOR MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICYMAKERS, FOR BUSINESSES AND MANAGERS, AND FOR INVESTORS PLANNING FOR THE IMPACT OF WFH ON GOODS AND LABOR MARKETS. THIS PROJECT HAS THREE MAJOR STRANDS TO ADVANCE RESEARCH ON THIS TOPIC. FIRST IS THE SURVEY OF WORKING ARRANGEMENTS AND ATTITUDES (SWAA) WHICH WILL COLLECT DETAILED WFH INFORMATION FOR AROUND 8,000 WORKING AMERICANS A MONTH AGED 20 TO 64 ON CURRENT PRACTICES, INTENTIONS AND IMPACTS ON LIFESTYLE, PRODUCTIVITY AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS. THIS PROVIDES DETAILED MONTHLY DATA ON EXACTLY THE WORKING PATTERNS ACROSS REGIONS, INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS ACROSS THE US. SECOND, THE PROJECT WILL ALSO DEVELOP AN EMPLOYEE-EMPLOYER DATASET FROM A LEADING US PAYROLL PROCESSING FIRM TO EXAMINE WHERE PEOPLE LIVE AND WORK PRE AND POST PANDEMIC. PAYROLL DATA USUALLY HAS ACCURATE HOME AND WORK LOCATION DATA, AND BY EXAMINING A PANEL OF EMPLOYEES AND INDIVIDUALS IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXAMINE IMPACTS OF WFH ON LOCATIONAL CHOICE AND INFER WFH PATTERNS. THIRD, THE TEAM WILL EXAMINE THE IMPACT OF WORKING FROM HOME ON AGGREGATE US PRODUCTIVITY AND WORKER WELFARE USING A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL. THIS AIM WILL PROVIDE RESULTS ON INDIVIDUAL WORKERS? RELATIVE PRODUCTIVITY WHILE WORKING FROM HOME AND THEN ENABLE COUNTERFACTUAL EXERCISES TO SEE HOW ECONOMY-WIDE WELFARE AND PRODUCTIVITY WOULD DIFFER IF, FOR EXAMPLE, WE FORCED WORKING FROM HOME BACK TO THE LOW LEVELS FROM BEFORE THE PANDEMIC. THIS WILL BE INVALUABLE FOR CONSIDERING SOME OF THE LARGER, LONG-RUN AGGREGATE IMPACTS OF THE ROUGHLY 5-FOLD INCREASE IN RATES OF WORKING FROM HOME EXPERIENCED POST-PANDEMIC. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

PERSONAL CREDIT NEW FIRM FORMATION AND ENTREPRENEURIAL FIRM GROWTH

CAREER: MACROECONOMIC POLICIES: FROM OPTIMAL GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS TO REGULATING NEW TECHNOLOGIES -GOVERNMENT POLICY PLAYS A KEY ROLE IN MODERN ECONOMIES. IN THE SHORT-TERM, GOVERNMENTS HELP STABILIZE BUSINESS CYCLES. FISCAL TRANSFERS, SUCH AS STIMULUS CHECKS, HAVE RECENTLY BECOME AN IMPORTANT TOOL IN ALLEVIATING US RECESSIONS. TWO PROJECTS FUNDED BY THIS AWARD QUANTIFY HOW LARGE STIMULUS TRANSFERS SHOULD BE AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEY STABILIZE REGIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN A FISCAL UNION. OVER LONGER PERIODS OF TIME, GOVERNMENTS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR REGULATING NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND MANAGING THEIR CONSEQUENCES. NEW CHALLENGES BROUGHT TO THE FORE BY DIGITAL AND AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES MOTIVATE THE REMAINING THREE PROJECTS FUNDED BY THIS AWARD. THE PROJECTS INVESTIGATE THE MISUSE OF ARTIFICAL INTELLIGENCE TO SUPPORT SURVEILLANCE STATES, THE OPTIMAL REGULATION OF DIGITAL INDUSTRIES WHERE DATA CAN LEAD TO CONCENTRATION, AND HOW GOVERNMENTS SHOULD MANAGE EPISODES OF LABOR REALLOCATION WHERE NEW TECHNOLOGIES DISPLACE WORKERS. BY INFORMING POLICY, THESE PROJECTS WILL BENEFIT DISADVANTAGED POPULATIONS IN THE US WHO ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACTED BY RECESSIONS AND AUTOMATION, FOSTER US NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS AND DEMOCRATIC STABILITY, AND HELP ENSURE THE US REMAINS A LEADER IN THE DIGITAL INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE. THE EDUCATIONAL COMPONENT OF THIS AWARD WILL DISSEMINATE THE RESEARCH FINDINGS TO POLICYMAKERS AND JOURNALISTS, AS WELL TO GRADUATE STUDENTS THROUGH A TUTORIAL RAN BY THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. THE PROJECTS FUNDED BY THE AWARD ADVANCE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF CORE ISSUES IN MACROECONOMICS, BUT ALSO CONNECT TO BROADER QUESTIONS IN POLITICAL ECONOMY, INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION, AND LABOR ECONOMICS. THE FIRST PROJECT RECOGNIZES THAT HOUSEHOLDS' MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO CONSUME OUT OF A STIMULUS TRANSFER VARIES WITH ITS SIZE. A KEY DETERMINANT OF SUCH SIZE-DEPENDENCE IS THE DURABILITY OF GOODS. THE PROJECT DEVELOPS A STATE-OF-THE ART MODEL OF DURABLES DEMAND, CALIBRATES IT TO MATCH KEY MOMENTS IN US MICRO-DATA, AND USES IT TO QUANTIFY THE OPTIMAL SIZE OF STIMULUS TRANSFERS. THE SECOND PROJECT APPLIES A SEMI-STRUCTURAL METHODOLOGY FOR POLICY COUNTERFACTUALS TO STATE-LEVEL US DATA TO CONSTRUCT A US ECONOMY WITHOUT FISCAL INTEGRATION. THE THIRD PROJECT COLLECTS GLOBAL DATA ON FACIAL RECOGNITION AI TRADE. IT DOCUMENTS NEW FACTS ABOUT US AND CHINESE EXPORTS OF THIS SURVEILLANCE TECHNOLOGY TO AUTOCRACIES AND DEMOCRACIES. THE FOURTH PROJECT BUILDS A MODEL OF THE LIFE-CYCLE OF OLIGOPOLISTIC INDUSTRIES, SUCH AS DIGITAL INDUSTRIES WHERE DATA IS A KEY INPUT. THE EQUILIBRIUM FEATURES AN INITIAL FIRM ENTRY PHASE, FOLLOWED BY A SHAKEOUT AND LATER INDUSTRY CONCENTRATION. THE MODEL IS CALIBRATED TO MATCH US DATA ON DIGITAL INDUSTRIES AND IS USED TO STUDY OPTIMAL INDUSTRY REGULATION. THE LAST PROJECT BEGINS FROM THE OBSERVATION THAT WORKER DISPLACEMENT IS A COMMON FEATURE OF MANY EPISODES OF LABOR REALLOCATION, SUCH AS THOSE INDUCED BY AUTOMATION OR THE TRANSITION TO CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES. DISPLACED WORKERS FACE REALLOCATION AND BORROWING FRICTIONS IN SUCH EPISODES. THE PROJECT DEVELOPS A HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS MODEL WHICH INCORPORATES THESE FRICTIONS. IT USES IT TO STUDY SECOND BEST POLICIES THAT SLOW DOWN TECHNOLOGICAL ADOPTION OR HELP WORKER REALLOCATION. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

CAREER: ECONOMIC CRISES AND AMPLIFICATION MECHANISMS

GLOBAL PRICES AND INCOMES 1200-1950 - STAGE 3

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF ECONOMIC POLICY IN IMPERFECTLY COMPETITIVE LABOR MARKETS -THIS PROJECT MEASURES THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF IMPERFECTLY COMPETITIVE LABOR MARKETS. IN HIS 2022 AEA PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS, DAVID CARD ARGUED THAT IMPERFECT COMPETITION IN THE LABOR MARKET IS PERVASIVE. FEW FIRMS DOMINATE MANY LOCAL LABOR MARKETS GIVING THEM THE ABILITY TO SET WAGES AND PAY WORKERS LESS THAN THEIR MARGINAL PRODUCT. WORKERS ARE OFTEN RELUCTANT TO SEARCH FOR A NEW JOB, FURTHER REENFORCING FIRMS' MARKET POWER. WHAT TYPES OF POLICIES CAN IMPROVE OUTCOMES IN THE LABOR MARKET AND WHAT ARE THEIR MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS? THIS PROJECT CONSISTS OF A RESEARCH AGENDA FOCUSED ON THIS QUESTION. THIS PROJECT BUILDS ON A TESTED QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR IMPERFECT COMPETITION IN LABOR MARKETS AND THEN EXTENDS THIS FRAMEWORK TO (I) ACCOUNT FOR EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM APPLIED MICROECONOMIC STUDIES AND OUR OWN EMPIRICAL CONTRIBUTIONS AND THEN (II) ANALYZE POLICY. THE FRAMEWORKS DEVELOPED IN THIS PROJECT WILL GENERATE SEVERAL PUBLIC GOODS. FIRST, THE FRAMEWORKS ALLOW ECONOMISTS, LEGAL SCHOLARS, AND POLICYMAKERS TO BETTER INFORM MINIMUM WAGE POLICY, MERGER GUIDELINES, AND OPTIMAL TAXATION. SECOND, AS PART OF THIS PROJECT'S ONGOING EFFORTS TO STUDY THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF MERGERS, THIS PROJECT WILL DEVELOP A NEW SET OF CENSUS DATABASE LINKAGES BETWEEN THE DECENNIAL CENSUS, THE LEHD, AND THE LBD IN ORDER TO STUDY THE EFFECTS OF MERGERS ACROSS RACE, GENDER, OCCUPATION AND OTHER POLICY-RELEVANT CHARACTERISTICS OF WORKERS. THE CODES FOR THE MODELS DEVELOPED IN THIS PROJECT WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLINE, AND THE CENSUS MAINTAINS A REPOSITORY OF OUR EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR ALL FUTURE RESEARCHERS. LASTLY, THE MODELS DEVELOPED IN THIS PROJECT PROVIDE A SET OF THEORETIC AND COMPUTATIONAL TOOLS THAT ENABLE RESEARCHERS TO SOLVE MODELS OF OLIGOPSONY QUICKLY AND EFFICIENTLY. OUR AGENDA BUILDS ON OUR TESTED QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR IMPERFECT COMPETITION IN LABOR MARKETS. WE PROPOSE FOUR SUB-PROJECTS THAT APPLY AND EXTEND OLIGOPSONY MODELS FEATURING RICH WORKER AND FIRM HETEROGENEITY TO: (I) UNDERSTAND THE CAPACITY OF MINIMUM WAGE POLICY TO RETRIEVE A PORTION OF THE EFFICIENCY LOSSES DUE TO WAGE SETTING POWER IN THE LABOR MARKET, (II) STUDY THE TRADE-OFFS FOR ANTITRUST POLICY IN TERMS OF PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS IN OUTPUT VERSUS EFFICIENCY LOSSES DUE TO GREATER MONOPSONY POWER, (III) DESCRIBE AND ANALYZE A NOVEL LINK BETWEEN THE DESIGN OF INCOME TAX POLICY AND LABOR MARKET EFFICIENCY WHILE LAYING OUT A COMPLETE FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF MONOPSONY, (IV) REVISIT ALL THREE POLICIES WITHIN A FRAMEWORK THAT ALLOWS FOR MARKET POWER DUE TO BOTH `CLASSICAL' MONOPSONY VIA PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY, AND `FRICTIONAL' MONOPSONY DUE TO SEARCH IN A JOB LADDER SETTING. IN EACH CASE WE EITHER (I) PROVIDE NEW EMPIRICAL FACTS TO TEST OUR NEW THEORY, OR (II) HOLD THE NEW THEORY ACCOUNTABLE TO THE MOST UP-TO-DATE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE APPLIED MICROECONOMICS LITERATURE, BUILDING A BRIDGE BETWEEN QUANTITATIVE AND EMPIRICAL WORK. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

CAREER: EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC POLICY AND INCENTIVE DESIGN IN INSURANCE FOR HEALTH-RELATED RISKS

PRICE RIGIDITY AND THE GRANULAR ORIGIN OF AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS

PROPERTY TAX EXPERIMENT: TESTING THE ROLE OF WAGES, INCENTIVES AND AUDIT ON TAX INSPECTORS' BEHAVIOR

CAREER: USING INFORMATION AND INCENTIVES TO PROMOTE HUMAN CAPITAL

UNDERSTANDING DE MINIMIS IMPORTS -THIS AWARD FUNDS A RESEARCH PROJECT TO STUDY THE AGGREGATE AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF DE MINIMIS TRADE POLICIES AND OF DIRECT INTERNATIONAL SHIPMENTS TO CONSUMERS. DE MINIMIS IMPORTS REFER TO THE IMPORT OF GOODS WITH A VALUE BELOW A CERTAIN LIMIT, CONSIDERED TOO SMALL TO BE SUBJECT TO TAXES OR CUSTOMS DUTIES. IN THE U.S., THE 1930 TARIFF ACT ARRANGES DE MINIMIS TRADE LIMITS AND ALLOWS PEOPLE TO IMPORT UP TO $800 WORTH OF GOODS PER DAY WITHOUT DUTIES OR CUSTOMS BURDEN. DE MINIMIS IMPORTS IN THE U.S. FORM AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT CHANNEL THROUGH WHICH CONSUMERS AND SMALL BUSINESSES SOURCE THEIR SPENDING. THE SHARE OF DE MINIMIS IMPORTS IN TOTAL CONSUMER IMPORTS AND TOTAL E-COMMERCE SALES HAS GROWN CONTINUOUSLY. THIS RESEARCH BUILDS AND EXTENDS AN ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK THAT USES NEW DATA SOURCES, INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL SHIPMENTS INTO THE U.S. HANDLED BY THREE SHIPPING CARRIERS, TO ANSWER VARIOUS RESEARCH QUESTIONS, SUCH AS HOW DOES THE EXISTENCE OF DE MINIMIS POLICIES AFFECT FIRMS AND CONSUMERS? WHICH CONSUMERS ARE THE LARGEST BENEFICIARIES OF DIRECT IMPORTS, AND OF DE MINIMIS IMPORTS? WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING THE DE MINIMIS RULE AND HOW WOULD THESE EFFECTS VARY ACROSS CONSUMER TYPES, AND WHAT IS AN OPTIMAL DE MINIMIS THRESHOLD? THE RESEARCH FINDINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INSPIRE NEW TRADE POLICY DESIGNS, ENHANCE THE WELFARE OF U.S. CONSUMERS AND BUSINESSES, AND HELP MAINTAIN THE U.S.'S POSITION AS A GLOBAL LEADER IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE. THIS AWARD FUNDS A RESEARCH PROJECT TO DEVELOP A QUANTITATIVE TRADE FRAMEWORK WHERE CONSUMERS HAVE HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES ACROSS COMMODITIES OF DIFFERENT VALUE, AND WHERE FIRMS ARE HETEROGENEOUS WITH RESPECT TO PRODUCTIVITY AND QUALITY. FIRMS OPTIMIZE OVER PRICES WHILE CONSIDERING INCENTIVES TO AVOID PAYING TAXES. A RANGE OF FIRMS WHO WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE PRICED ABOVE THE TAX NOTCH LOWER PRICES, IMPLYING A SOURCE OF TERMS OF TRADE GAINS FOR THE COUNTRY IMPOSING DE MINIMIS. THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS IDENTIFIES THE RELEVANT ELASTICITY PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL BY LEVERAGING THE OBSERVED BUNCHING IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF SHIPMENT VALUES AT THE TAX NOTCH CREATED BY DE MINIMIS POLICIES, DRAWING PARALLELS TO METHODS USED IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS TO ANALYZE LABOR SUPPLY ELASTICITIES. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODEL AND ESTIMATED PARAMETERS IS USED TO DETERMINE THE AGGREGATE, DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES, AND EFFICIENCY OF DE MINIMIS POLICIES, AND TO GAUGE THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF DIRECT LOW-VALUE SHIPMENTS MORE BROADLY. ADDITIONALLY, BY EXTENDING THEIR FRAMEWORK, THE RESEARCHERS ANSWER IMPORTANT RESEARCH QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE GLOBAL IMPACTS OF DE MINIMIS RULES AND THEIR IMPACTS ON FIRMS. THIS RESEARCH COULD ENABLE RESEARCHERS AND DECISIONMAKERS TO BETTER EVALUATE THE VALUE OF DE MINIMIS TRADE, THE IMPACT OF TRADE POLICIES ON THESE IMPORTS, AND THEIR EFFECTS ON PARTICIPANT WELFARE. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

THE OPTIMAL MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAXATION -TAX, TRANSFER, AND SOCIAL INSURANCE PROGRAMS ARE IMPORTANT POLICIES THAT ARE OF CONCERN TO ECONOMISTS, DECISION MAKERS, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC. HOUSEHOLDS? TAX LIABILITIES AND TRANSFERS DEPEND ON MULTIPLE CHARACTERISTICS AND THIS DEPENDENCE IS RATHER SOPHISTICATED. FOR INSTANCE, IN THE U.S., INDIVIDUALS? TAXES AND TRANSFERS ARE DETERMINED JOINTLY BY THEIR EARNINGS, MARITAL STATUS AND EARNINGS OF THEIR SPOUSES, DIFFERENT TYPES OF CAPITAL INCOMES, MORTGAGE AMOUNTS, EDUCATIONAL EXPENDITURES, AND HEALTH INSURANCE PURCHASES. THIS PROJECT DEVELOPS A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR STUDYING SUCH MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAXATION IN ENVIRONMENTS WITH RICH AND REALISTIC HETEROGENEITY. THE PROJECT DESCRIBES THE OPTIMAL DESIGN OF MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAXES, TRANSFERS, AND SOCIAL INSURANCE PROGRAMS; IDENTIFIES SIMPLE AND INTUITIVE EMPIRICAL STATISTICS THAT ARE CENTRAL TO THEIR DESIGN; AND PROVIDES TESTS TO ASSESS WHETHER EXISTING TAXES ARE PARETO EFFICIENT AND SUGGESTS EFFICIENCY-ENHANCING REFORMS. DESPITE PREVALENCE OF MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAXES AND TRANSFERS IN PRACTICE, THERE IS A LACK OF NORMATIVE LITERATURE IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS THAT EXPLORES THEIR EFFICIENCY AND OPTIMAL DESIGN. CURRENT OFF-THE-SHELF METHODS LARGELY RELY ON AD-HOC ASSUMPTIONS ON THE SHAPE OF A TAX SCHEDULE AND/OR UNI-DIMENSIONALITY OF HETEROGENEITY THAT LIMITS THEIR PRACTICAL RELEVANCE. THIS PROJECT ADDRESSES THESE LIMITATIONS BY DEVELOPING GENERAL TECHNIQUES THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO A WIDE RANGE OF MULTI-DIMENSIONAL ENVIRONMENTS TO STUDY TWO QUESTIONS: (I) THE OPTIMAL DESIGN OF A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAX SYSTEM GIVEN SOME SOCIAL OBJECTIVE, AND (II) TESTING WHETHER EXISTING UNI- OR MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAX SYSTEMS CAN BE REFORMED IN A PARETO-IMPROVING WAY. THE PROJECT BUILDS UPON AND EXTENDS TWO APPROACHES IN THE NORMATIVE PUBLIC FINANCE LITERATURE: MECHANISM DESIGN METHODS AND PERTURBATIONS OF TAX FUNCTIONS. IT COMBINES BOTH METHODS WITH SEVERAL TECHNIQUES FROM MULTI-VARIATE CALCULUS, SUCH AS THE DIVERGENCE THEOREM AND THE COAREA FORMULA, TO DELIVER A COMPREHENSIVE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE OPTIMAL MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAX SCHEDULE. THE PROJECT ALSO IDENTIFIES NEW EMPIRICAL STATISTICS THAT PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE IN OPTIMAL MULTI-DIMENSIONAL TAXATION AND ESTIMATES THEM EMPIRICALLY FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

BIG PUSH, DISTORTIONS, AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND MONETARY POLICY: ACCOUNTING FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SMALL AND LARGE FIRMS OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: SOCIAL NETWORKS AND MICROFINANCE

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISES IN LONG-TERM HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

CAREER: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL INEQUALITY AND PLACE-BASED POLICIES

CAREER: EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF CITIES' AND NEIGHBORHOODS' INFLUENCE ON INCOME AND CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY

MARKET-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION OF INDUSTRY: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH

AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS DURING THE ASSIMILATION ERA 1900-1940

MEASURING FIRMS' FINANCIAL SOUNDNESS

INFLATION AND WELFARE WITH PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY -ECONOMICS STRIVES TO DISTILL INFORMATION ABOUT MILLIONS OF PRODUCTS, FIRMS, AND WORKERS INTO A CONCISE SET OF METRICS THAT SUMMARIZE HOUSEHOLD WELFARE AND COST OF LIVING. THESE STATISTICS ARE CRUCIAL FOR EVALUATING THE EFFICACY AND IMPACT OF PUBLIC DECISIONS. THIS RESEARCH CONTRIBUTES TO DEVELOPING A COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR DEFINING, MEASURING, AND ANALYZING INDIVIDUAL AND AGGREGATE WELFARE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT HOUSEHOLD HETEROGENEITY. THIS WORK ENCOMPASSES SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS. FIRST, IT INTRODUCES NEW METHODOLOGIES FOR MEASURING COST OF LIVING AND INFLATION, ACCOUNTING FOR THE VARYING VALUES DIFFERENT HOUSEHOLDS PLACE ON GOODS AND SERVICES. SECOND, IT PROPOSES NOVEL MEASURES OF WELL-BEING THAT INCORPORATE EXPECTATIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE. THIRD, IT OFFERS AN IMPROVED APPROACH TO COMPARING WELFARE ACROSS COUNTRIES, IMPROVING UPON THE TRADITIONAL USE OF GDP COMPARISONS UNDER PURCHASING POWER PARITY. FOURTH, IT ANALYZES AGGREGATE SOCIETAL WELFARE WHILE CONSIDERING THE UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CHANGES. THE ADVENT OF EXTENSIVE DATABASES TRACKING HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL CONSUMER BEHAVIOR HAS OPENED NEW AVENUES FOR RESEARCH. BY DEVELOPING MORE FLEXIBLE, DATA-INTENSIVE APPROACHES TO CONCEPTUALIZING AND MEASURING WELFARE, THIS PROJECT LEVERAGES THE WEALTH OF MICROECONOMIC DATA TO PROVIDE DECISION MAKERS WITH MORE ACCURATE AND NUANCED INSIGHTS INTO INDIVIDUAL AND SOCIETAL WELL-BEING. THE AGGREGATION OF MICROECONOMIC BEHAVIOR INTO MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT THEORETICAL ADVANCEMENTS IN RECENT DECADES. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN INCORPORATING HETEROGENEITY INTO PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION FUNCTIONS, THE TREATMENT OF PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY IN GOODS CONSUMPTION HAS LAGGED. THIS RESEARCH ADDRESSES THIS GAP BY ANALYZING ECONOMIES WHERE THE STANDARD ASSUMPTIONS OF STABILITY (IN THE TIME DIMENSION), SYMMETRY (IN THE CROSS-SECTION), AND HOMOTHETICITY (IN INCOME AND WEALTH) IN PREFERENCES ARE RELAXED. THIS RESEARCH DEVELOPS A FRAMEWORK THAT ACCOMMODATES VARIATIONS IN HOUSEHOLD PREFERENCES ACROSS INCOME LEVELS, DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS, AND TIME PERIODS. THIS APPROACH CHALLENGES THE CONVENTIONAL USE OF SIMPLE, HOMOGENEOUS PREFERENCE STRUCTURES IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS, WHICH OFTEN RELY ON DIVISIA INDICES FOR WELFARE MEASUREMENTS. ALLOWING FOR NON-HOMOTHETIC AND HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES INTRODUCES CONCEPTUAL AND PRACTICAL COMPLEXITIES IN WELFARE MEASUREMENT THAT CANNOT BE CAPTURED BY TRADITIONAL METHODS. FOR EXAMPLE, MEASURES OF WELFARE THAT TAKE PRICES AS GIVEN DIFFER FROM THOSE THAT TAKE TECHNOLOGIES (RATHER THAN PRICES) AS GIVEN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS WORK EXTEND TO BOTH SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC PHENOMENA, SUCH AS BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS AND INFLATION DYNAMICS, AND LONG-TERM STRUCTURAL CHANGES, INCLUDING SECTORAL TRANSFORMATIONS AND THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION. THE METHODOLOGY DEVELOPED IN THIS PROJECT PROVIDES A MORE NUANCED UNDERSTANDING OF AGGREGATE WELFARE, ACCOUNTING FOR THE DIVERSE WAYS IN WHICH ECONOMIC CHANGES IMPACT DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.- SUBAWARDS ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THIS AWARD.

BRANDING AND PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION IN MARKETS WITH ADVERTISING

MEDICARE PART D: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SUPPLY SIDE INCENTIVES

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS WITH SANCTIONS -THIS RESEARCH DEVELOPS AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK TO UNDERSTAND THE SHORT-, MEDIUM-, AND LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITY. THE RESULTS PROVIDE A ROADMAP ON HOW SEVERAL TYPES OF SANCTIONS, TRADE AND FINANCIAL, MIGHT WORK, HOW THEY MIGHT AFFECT INDIVIDUAL AGENTS, TRADE, AND MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES IN THE TARGETED COUNTRY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WHEN THAT COUNTRY IS NOT SMALL. THE RESULTS ALSO SHOW THAT THE EXCHANGE RATE IS NOT A USEFUL METRIC FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SANCTIONS. THE TARGETED COUNTRY'S CURRENCY DEPRECIATION OR APPRECIATION REFLECTS THE TYPE OF SANCTION AND HOW ECONOMIES ADJUST BY REALLOCATING RESOURCES ACROSS PRODUCTION SECTORS. THE FRAMEWORK PROVIDES GUIDANCE FOR POLICY BY DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MENU OF SANCTIONS THAT A GOVERNMENT WOULD WANT TO IMPOSE, HOW THIS MENU IS AFFECTED BY INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OR LACK THEREOF, AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF SANCTIONS FOR THE CONDUCT OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES. THIS RESEARCH IS RELEVANT FOR THE DISCUSSIONS OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ONGOING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND FOR AN UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMIC WARFARE. THE ANALYSIS BEGINS WITH A TRACTABLE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF TWO COUNTRIES, HOME AND FOREIGN, WITH COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN PRODUCTION OF DIFFERENTIATED CONSUMPTION GOODS (HOME) OR A HOMOGENEOUS COMMODITY (E.G., GAS?FOREIGN). HOME IMPOSES TRADE AND FINANCIAL SANCTIONS ON FOREIGN. TRADE SANCTIONS ARE INTRODUCED THROUGH (I) A BAN ON INTERNATIONAL GAS TRADE OR (II) THE EXCLUSION OF MOST PRODUCTIVE CONSUMPTION-SECTOR FIRMS FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADE. FINANCIAL SANCTIONS IMPLY THE EXCLUSION OF A PORTION OF FOREIGN AGENTS FROM INTERNATIONAL ASSET MARKETS (WHEN ALL FOREIGN AGENTS ARE EXCLUDED, FINANCIAL SANCTIONS IMPLY FINANCIAL AUTARKY). CHANGES IN THE RANGE OF PRODUCTS AVAILABLE TO CONSUMERS ARE CENTRAL TO THE TRANSMISSIONS OF SANCTIONS. FOR INSTANCE, IN RESPONSE TO SANCTIONS THAT PROHIBIT THE MOST PRODUCTIVE HOME FIRMS FROM EXPORTING TO FOREIGN, AVERAGE HOME EXPORTER PRODUCTIVITY FALLS, AND THE AVERAGE PRICE OF FOREIGN IMPORTS RISES. FOREIGN HOUSEHOLDS SHIFT DEMAND TOWARD DOMESTIC GOODS PRODUCED BY FOREIGN FIRMS THAT ARE LESS PRODUCTIVE THAN HOME EXPORTERS. A HIGHER AVERAGE IMPORT PRICE AND THE SHIFT IN DEMAND TOWARD DOMESTIC GOODS CAUSE THE FOREIGN PRICE LEVEL TO RISE AND THE HOME EXCHANGE RATE TO DEPRECIATE. IN RESPONSE TO A BAN ON GAS TRADE, FOREIGN ADJUSTS BY SHIFTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION OF CONSUMPTION GOODS TO REPLACE LOST EXPORT REVENUE. THE NUMBER OF FOREIGN CONSUMPTION EXPORTERS RISES, AND THEIR AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY FALLS, RESULTING IN A HIGHER AVERAGE PRICE OF HOME IMPORTS AND HOME EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION. WHEN A THIRD COUNTRY IS ADDED TO THE FRAMEWORK, THE IMPACT OF SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS ON TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS COORDINATION CAN BE INVESTIGATED. THE RESULTS OF THESE EXERCISES, IN WHICH SANCTIONS ARE TAKEN AS EXOGENOUSLY GIVEN, PROVIDE THE FOUNDATION FOR THE NEXT PART OF THE RESEARCH AGENDA, WHICH FOCUSES ON THE OPTIMAL CHOICE OF SANCTIONS, THEIR INTERACTION WITH FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES, AND HOW MACROECONOMIC POLICYMAKERS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE EFFECTS OF SANCTIONS. THIS AWARD REFLECTS NSF'S STATUTORY MISSION AND HAS BEEN DEEMED WORTHY OF SUPPORT THROUGH EVALUATION USING THE FOUNDATION'S INTELLECTUAL MERIT AND BROADER IMPACTS REVIEW CRITERIA.

MEASURING THE UNEQUAL GAINS FROM TRADE

INCREASING COLLEGE ENROLLMENT AMONG LOW- AND MODERATE-INCOME FAMILIES: A PROPOSAL TO IMPROVE ACCESS TO FINANCIAL AID

MULTILATERAL TRADE BARGAINING: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM THE GATT BARGAINING RECORDS

CAREER: EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS: THE IMPACTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

EARLY CHILDHOOD ENVIRONMENT AND ADULT LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

DEMAND FOR ADVERTISING AND ITS IMPACT ON MEDIA CONTENT

INNOVATION NETWORKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

THE EFFECT OF ACCELERATORS ON THE REGIONAL ENTREPRENEURIAL ECOSYSTEM: FINANCING, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CLUSTER FORMATION

ASPIRATIONS, INEQUALITY AND SOCIAL CONFLICT

SBE-UKRI: BUSINESS CYCLES, UNCERTAIN GROWTH AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRODUCTION

HOW DOES BOOSTING WORKERS' OUTSIDE OPTIONS AFFECT JOB MOBILITY AND WAGE SETTING? QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

CAREER: EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF INCENTIVE DESIGN, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY USE, AND PRODUCTIVITY IN PHYSICIAN MARKETS

CAREER: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS USING AUCTION DATA

NBER SUMMER INSTITUTE, CAMBRIDGE, MA, JULY 2009, JULY 2010 AND JULY 2011

ROBUST COUNTERFACTUAL PREDICTIONS IN NEOCLASSICAL MODELS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE

THE PERSISTENCE OF LONGEVITY ACROSS GENERATIONS: AN EXPLORATORY INVESTIGATION OF GRANDCHILDREN OF EX-POWS

NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH WITH LONG-TERM ONE-SIDED COMMITMENT CONTRACTS

CAREER: GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS

TLS: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF SCIENCE POLICY ON THE RATE AND DIRECTION OF SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS: FRONTIER TOOLS & APPLICATIONS

UNDERSTANDING CREDIT CRISES

HOSPITAL PAYMENT INCENTIVES AND OPIOID PRESCRIBING